In a landmark development, the PKK terrorist group last Monday announced its dissolution and the end of its four-decade terror campaign that cost tens of thousands of lives. Now, the next steps are expected in the process dubbed “terror-free Türkiye,” with the PKK’s decision poised to have far-reaching results for the broader Middle East.
If the terrorist group follows through on its pledge, it would be the end of a major risk factor that could foster regional ties and economic development for Türkiye, Iraq and Syria – the top three countries plagued by PKK terrorism.
According to Oytun Orhan, a Levant expert from the Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies (ORSAM), some of the most significant impacts of the PKK decision will be on Iraq, where the PKK has for decades operated rear bases in northern regions bordering Türkiye.
Türkiye also maintains military bases in the region and has conducted multiple counterterrorism operations in the past decade. Ankara has assured its military would continue acting against the PKK terrorists until it is “certain” the threat is removed.
Orhan believes the PKK’s absolute dissolution will eliminate the need for further Turkish military operations and serve as a tremendous boost to Ankara’s relations with Baghdad and Irbil, the capital of the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).
The element of terrorism looms over Türkiye-Iraq ties, with Ankara expecting cooperation from both Baghdad and Irbil. Turkish cross-border operations in northern Iraq, from where the PKK launched attacks on Turkish soil for years, have often been a point of contention between the neighbors.
The PKK’s self-disbandment will eliminate the greatest risk factor, Orhan told Daily Sabah. “When there is no terror, there will be no need for Turkish military operations and relations between Türkiye, Iraq and the KRG will settle into a much healthier foundation.”
The PKK as a security threat has also jeopardized economic prospects for the neighbors, who have been floating an ambitious $17 billion plan designed to facilitate the transport of goods from the Gulf to Europe via the Grand Faw Port in Basra in southern Iraq. The port would be linked to Türkiye and subsequently to Europe through an extensive network of railways and highways.
The end of terrorism could also pave the way for the Development Road project, other logistical routes and energy projects, Orhan said.
Baghdad recently said it was “eager” to maintain the momentum in ties with Ankara and touted the significance of the PKK’s disbandment, calling it a “common threat.”
“Iraq’s security will be facilitated, and this will lay much more positive foundations for energy and economic ties, too,” Orhan said.
Syria front
Türkiye expects the PKK’s dissolution will include not just the PKK itself but all affiliated groups, extensions in Iraq and specifically the terrorist group’s wing, YPG, in Syria, Orhan continued.
The YPG is located largely around oil-rich regions of northern Syria and is backed by the United States under the guise of driving out Daesh remnants. Initially opposed to the jailed PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan’s call to disband, the YPG in March signed a deal with Damascus to disband and join Syria’s new state institutions.
The March deal also called for YPG-controlled border crossings, an airport and oil and gas fields in eastern Syria to become part of the Damascus administration. Implementation is due by the end of the year, but it was unclear how the YPG’s armed operation would be integrated.
Orhan argued that the PKK decision will make apparent the divisions between the YPG cadres and other local formations within the PKK.
“If the PKK truly disarms and dissolves, the PKK’s influence on the YPG will be lifted, which would ease the YPG’s integration into the Syrian state so much more,” he said. “This would also soften Türkiye’s objections or perception of the YPG threat to the region.”
So far, Ankara has insisted that the YPG take immediate steps to fulfill the March deal, stressing the need for a “comprehensive government, a single legitimate armed force” for stability in Syria.
Damascus sharply rejected any attempt from the YPG for a decentralized system in post-Assad Syria as “against the deal” after the terrorist commanders last month called for federalism to establish a separate entity in the northern territories.
“Any exemptions (for the YPG) within the army or a security mechanism could bring with it fresh sectarian or ethnic conflicts for Syria in the future, akin to the political instabilities in Iraq and Jordan,” Orhan said.
“In light of the YPG’s demands for federalism and an exclusive status within the new Syrian army, integration is impossible,” he continued. “Damascus won’t accept that, and it’s a red line for Türkiye, too.”
Potential dissident regrouping
Similarly, Orhan pointed out other, smaller subgroups in the PKK who have refused to embrace Öcalan’s call to lay down arms, arguing the decision did not extend to their operations.
“This is one of the biggest risks of this whole process,” Orhan said.
The refusal to comply with the disbandment could be due to the internal dynamics or groups within the PKK, “who are determined to continue the armed struggle, the terror,” he added.
“But Türkiye is not extremely optimistic at this point. It’s cautious and aware of these kinds of risks.”
Orhan believes Ankara will continue cracking down on all factions insisting on continuing armed operations but will also clear a path for politics.
“There will have to be a distinction between groups arguing for politics and groups clinging to violence,” he said. “That’s when Türkiye will be able to better distinguish with whom it will fight and whom it will cooperate.”