More than a month has passed since the overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria. The past shows that the Syria of the future will be better than the Syria exploited by the Assad clan. More concretely, Syria will never again be a country where millions are forced to flee. But it will take a little more time for Syria, where the fighting is over, order is restored, and everyone focuses on their business. Because while Syria’s enemies have lost, they have not disappeared. Also, foreign interventions are likely to continue.
In the context of the internal enemy, the YPG and radical Alawite militants threaten the future of the country. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which played a leading role in the liberation of Syria from the Assad regime, has agreed to dissolve itself in the coming days and share the revolution with the people instead of appropriating it. Likewise, the Syrian National Army (SNA) has begun to de facto dissolve itself by joining the military and administrative cadres in the new administration. The two victorious factions will disappear from history, perhaps within a year.
It can be argued that the majority of both of the groups comprised Arabs and Sunnis and that their being in a relationship with the administration has made it easier for them to dissolve themselves. However, if the SNA wanted to continue as a separate entity since Türkiye was behind it, it probably could have continued. But it seems that both groups put Syria’s interests before their own.
However, this is not the case for the remnants of the regime. Radicals, who want to stage a counter-revolution and regain their former power, continue to terrorize Syria, particularly with the support of Iran. It can be expected that some radical Alawite groups, whose losses are even higher than those of the YPG, will not accept the current regime and will clash.
However, they will likely do the most damage not by fighting but by keeping Iran in the equation. Iran is one of the two countries, along with Israel, that is upset about Assad’s loss. Assad’s departure has reversed Shiite expansionism, confining Iran to its own territory. The fall of Assad, added to the setback that began with the paralysis of Hezbollah in Lebanon, was a major defeat for Tehran. The dream of a great Iran is now a pipe dream. However, it is inevitable that Iran will not stop spoiling Syria with its proxy groups.
The YPG, another threat, continues to covet the integrity of Syria by not dissolving itself like the HTS and SNA will soon do. The terrorist organization, which is an extension of the PKK and does not deny its aforementioned affiliation, wants to maintain the illegal autonomous administration it established with the support of the U.S. In particular, the organization turns a deaf ear to Türkiye’s calls to “cut ties with the PKK.”
In addition, it is seen that the YPG has been playing the role of victim even though it has not been bombed by the regime and Russia in recent years due to American support. On the other hand, it is seen that the U.S. embraces the organization by constantly keeping the threat of Daesh on the agenda in order not to break the alliance it established with the organization under the name of fighting Daesh. The U.S. is also trying to keep the YPG intact by keeping Daesh active and by rejecting the new Syrian administration’s and Türkiye’s offer to assume the responsibility of fighting Daesh.
Because of the YPG, the American presence in Syria can be expected to continue. But the problem does not end there. By calling on Israel for protection, the terrorist organization is trying to pit regional states against each other by putting the Jewish state in the equation. Therefore, it is highly likely that U.S.-Türkiye and Türkiye-Israel relations will worsen because of the YPG. In conclusion, the YPG jeopardizes not only Syria’s internal security and sovereignty but also the security of the region.
Finally, it is worth remembering that Syria may be particularly economically challenged by the failure of the U.S. and European countries to lift the embargoes imposed on the Assad regime. When Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock visited Syria, Ahmed al-Shaara did not shake her hand. On her return from Syria, Baerbock threatened that they had no money to give to them.
It can be said that this attitude of Baerbock, who acts with prejudices, stems from deeper reasons. Because if the issue is shaking hands with women, Assad was doing it while at the same time slaughtering 400,000 of his citizens without blinking an eye. Yet, despite his brutality, the Europeans still tried to improve relations with Assad. On the other hand, in particular, Germany was a partner in the massacre of children and women by providing unlimited arms aid to the Israeli administration, whose orthodox members also did not shake hands due to their beliefs. The current Syrian government has not been as hostile to people as either Israel or the Assad regime. Nevertheless, there are signals that Europeans will pressure the Damascus government under the pretext of its “extremist” identity.
The attitude of European politicians as soon as they left Damascus and some of the keywords they used in their speeches reveal what kind of policy they will pursue toward Syria in the future. It seems that Europe/U.S.-Syria relations will resemble their relations with Türkiye. The Western world will want to squeeze the new Syrian government by focusing on the rights of minorities instead of the 20 million Syrian people who have been victimized for decades. Indeed, they talk about the rights of minorities in every statement. However, everyone knows that the integrity of Syria is most opposed by the armed radical structures that claim to represent these groups.
European states will probably exploit the situation of these groups and will not entirely lift sanctions. In the next few months, they are also highly likely to press Syria on these issues.
In conclusion, it can be said that the establishment of order in Syria may take more time than expected. This is because those who remain silent on the massacre in Gaza are willing to impose their own conditions on Syria by lecturing it on human rights. We can expect that such partisanship may also embolden the aforementioned separatist groups and lead them to conflict instead of integration. It seems that winter is over in Syria, but the cold continues.