The continuous advancement of science and the rapid transformation of daily life through technology is now a reality we all witness. Especially over the past century, we have seen major technological revolutions in this context. While these technological transformations have had positive effects on economic prosperity, their disruptive waves in the socio-economic sphere have often been met with concern. In places where their direct effects on the labor market were felt quickly, this concern gave way to strong reactions.
Resistance to technological waves often reflects an attempt to counter the costly transformations they bring to the socioeconomic structure, rather than stemming from purely ideological perspectives. The history of fierce resistance to technological transformation is frequently discussed in the context of Luddism. For instance, Mustafa Süleyman refers to the Luddites in his book “The Coming Wave,” where he explores the question of how to control the new technological wave ushered in by artificial intelligence (AI). In response to the problems caused by the spread of mechanization in factories after the Industrial Revolution, the Luddites reacted by attacking and destroying weaving machines. Süleyman also notes that Queen Elizabeth I, in the late 16th century, rejected a new type of knitting machine on the grounds that it might disrupt the guilds, and he highlights how guilds in Nuremberg, Danzig, the Netherlands and England dismantled new types of looms.
In contrast to this stance is a more optimistic mainstream perspective. According to this view, technological advancements not only increase productivity but also create new job positions, thereby boosting demand for labor and offsetting any potential negative effects on employment. Instead of reacting hastily to change, one should wait patiently. This attitude was reiterated especially during the rise of digitalization and automation. While automation triggered profound transformations, its effects on the economy and labor markets were often downplayed through optimistic interpretations and long-term positive expectations. At each turning point, the focus remained on the benefits of technology, while its potential negative impacts on labor and other sectors were largely ignored. As a result, in recent decades of major technological transformations, the prevailing expectation has been that technological waves will balance the adverse effects by generating new job positions and entirely new professions.
Collapse of middle class
While a large segment of society continues to wait for employment opportunities in new jobs with the hope that technological transformation will deliver them, the acceleration of technological change and automation has long been concentrating economic prosperity exponentially in the hands of those who produce, manage and fill new positions thanks to their high-level skills. Individuals with mid-level skills are increasingly either becoming unemployed or being pushed into lower-paying jobs. As the number of people competing for low-skilled work grows, wages continue to decline. As a result, the middle class is being rapidly pushed downward toward the lower socioeconomic strata by technological waves. As their socioeconomic standing declines, members of the middle class find it increasingly difficult to access services such as education and health care — services they previously enjoyed more easily – and must now settle for lower quality standards. Meanwhile, their physical spaces and neighborhoods begin to shift as well.
Since the 1970s, similar patterns have continued to unfold across many countries. Daniel Markovits’ book “The Meritocracy Trap: How America’s Foundational Myth Feeds Inequality, Dismantles the Middle Class, and Devours the Elite” tells the story of this transformation and the collapse of the middle class, not only in the United States but also more broadly across the world. The technological waves of recent decades, through the major transformations they have triggered in the economy, have drawn the middle class closer to the lower classes, while clustering a small number of wealthy families around the epicenter of technological change and the exponentially increasing incomes it generates. Meanwhile, the quality of goods and services that once became widely accessible through mass production and distribution is steadily declining. High-quality services are becoming increasingly concentrated in a few locations, while their cost continues to rise. As a result, the threshold for affording access to quality services keeps climbing. The American Dream, once a powerful ideal, has lost its meaning. It is now little more than a dream from a bygone era.
As AI technologies begin to rapidly permeate all areas of life to form an entire ecosystem in the process, societies are once again being encouraged to adopt an optimistic outlook based on familiar assumptions. According to this expectation, while AI technologies will eliminate many existing jobs, they will also boost productivity and efficiency, thereby creating numerous new positions and restoring balance in employment. However, past experiences suggest that the gains in productivity and efficiency brought by automation have largely benefited capital rather than labor. As businesses’ employment capacity continues to shrink with new technologies, emerging jobs increasingly demand high-level skills and experience — assets that are significantly more costly to acquire. Moreover, as Süleyman has pointed out, it is now being openly acknowledged that many of these new jobs may eventually be performed by AI.
In summary, a much stronger shock wave – this time driven by AI – is emerging to the detriment of the middle and lower classes, who were already severely affected by the spread of automation and have lost much of their former advantage. As a result, large segments of the population who have been pushed down from their previous socioeconomic status have become far more vulnerable to political manipulation. Consequently, extreme ideologies and rhetoric are finding support more easily and are spreading rapidly across many countries. Echo chambers can now be created effortlessly, fueling deeper social polarization. In short, much harder days lie ahead.