Türkiye, due to its tectonic location, is a country frequently exposed to natural disasters, particularly earthquakes, but also floods, landslides and avalanches. On April 23, 2025, a 6.2 magnitude earthquake once again shook the country’s collective memory, reminding us of the persistent seismic threat, only a short time after what has been called the “Disaster of the Century.” The earthquake struck near Silivri, approximately 25 miles southwest of the Marmara Sea. According to the Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD), nearly 50 aftershocks were recorded within the same day, with the largest reaching 5.9 in magnitude. Fortunately, there was no loss of life, but the strong aftershocks triggered widespread social anxiety across Istanbul, Türkiye’s most populous city. Once again, Istanbul’s seismic vulnerability was laid bare for all.
Disaster management is critical for mitigating these risks and ensuring an effective response and recovery. Türkiye made significant progress after the devastating 1999 Marmara and Düzce Earthquakes, learning valuable lessons from the failures witnessed at that time. In 2009, through Law No. 5902, Türkiye established AFAD, consolidating all disaster management authorities under one roof. This legal reform introduced an integrated disaster management model, giving AFAD coordination authority over pre-disaster preparedness, emergency response, and post-disaster recovery.
Since then, Türkiye has systematically built its disaster resilience through initiatives like the Türkiye’s Disaster Response Plan (TAMP), the Disaster Management and Decision Support System (AYDES), the Seismic Hazard Map of Türkiye, the Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction Plans (IRAP), the Türkiye Spatial Strategy Plan (2021), the National Earthquake Strategy and Action Plan, and the Türkiye Disaster Risk Reduction Plan (2022–2030). Public awareness campaigns such as “Disaster-Ready Türkiye” and the AFAD Volunteer Project have also played crucial roles. Today, Türkiye operates Europe’s second-largest seismic network with 950 monitoring stations, and more than 10 million citizens have received disaster awareness training.
Yet, disaster management is not just about how we respond after an event; it’s equally about preparations. So, strengthening the resilience of buildings and cities remains a top priority. In this sense, initiatives like Türkiye’s Urban Transformation Mobilization program are critical.
Race against time
Urban transformation in Türkiye has been a priority since the destruction witnessed during the 1999 Earthquakes. Primarily, major urban renewal projects were launched for Istanbul, which focused on earthquake-resistant buildings. Early projects in 2002 under Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IBB) targeted high-risk zones in districts like Eyüpsultan, Beykoz, Büyükçekmece, and Kağıthane. Subsequent projects included areas such as Üsküdar, Sultangazi and Zeytinburnu.
The Zeytinburnu Urban Renewal Pilot Project (2003–2005) and the Bayrampaşa Urban Renewal Project (2003) have been among the first comprehensive efforts. These initiatives were spearheaded by the central government, the Housing Development Administration of Türkiye (TOKI), and the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality. After the enactment of Law No. 6306 on the Transformation of Areas Under Disaster Risk in 2012, urban transformation projects accelerated nationwide. Since then, millions of residential units have been transformed.
The Feb. 6, 2023, Kahramanmaraş earthquakes underscored the urgency of urban transformation. The Ministry of Environment, Urbanization, and Climate Change responded with bold steps: launching the National Risk Shield Project, convening the Earthquake and Urban Transformation Council, establishing the Directorate of Urban Transformation, and revising Law No. 6306. Campaigns such as the Urban Transformation Mobilization, the “Half on Us” (Yarısı Bizden) incentive program, and the “On-Site Transformation” initiative were launched. By February 2025, around 450,000 entitlement holders had been identified in the earthquake zone, with transformation projects underway. Approximately 200,000 housing units and commercial properties were completed under TOKI’s leadership, and the target remains to complete around 450,000 units across 11 provinces by the end of 2025.
Istanbul: Epicenter of urgency
Given Istanbul’s massive population and economic weight, disaster preparedness in the city demands special attention. Through the Istanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation Project (ISMEP), 1,643 public buildings were retrofitted, and gathering areas nearly doubled, from 2,864 to 5,633. The number of search and rescue teams accredited by AFAD also rose, with AFAD Centers established in all 39 districts of Istanbul. In 2021, a major logistical hub for disaster supplies was inaugurated, and 963 neighborhood liaison offices were created. As of today, Istanbul boasts an emergency shelter capacity of over 2 million people and maintains 546 disaster stations. Seismic activity in the Marmara region is monitored 24/7 through a network of 250 observation stations and 8 deep borehole seismometers.
However, Istanbul remains extremely vulnerable. With 15.6 million residents and 1.5 million independent units, the risk is daunting. Following the 2023 earthquakes, urban transformation efforts in Istanbul gained momentum. The “Half on Us” campaign set a target to transform 200,000 units, with 10,000 risky buildings already demolished and 100,000 units renewed. Meanwhile, TOKI continues the construction of the new social housing units.
Local governments, particularly the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, however, reveal a misalignment of priorities. Between 2019 and 2024, the IBB completed nearly 6,000 social housing and demolished almost three hundred risky buildings. During this period, the performance of the urban transformation efforts carried out by the IBB remained notably below the previously declared target of transforming 100,000 disaster-resilient homes in five years, set before the 2019 elections. Budgetary priorities also reflect this lack of focus: while IBB’s total 2025 budget stands at TL 415 billion ($10.76 billion), only TL 3.7 billion is allocated for urban transformation. In comparison, TL 7 billion is reserved for media and publicity, and TL 5.14 billion for cultural events. Local and district municipalities have similarly lagged, with minimal contributions compared to the central government’s efforts.
Warning for future
The 6.2 magnitude earthquake on April 23, 2025, was yet another stark reminder of Istanbul’s seismic fragility. The rapid deployment of AFAD teams, the immediate activation of the Türkiye Disaster Response Plan, and field assessments demonstrated the effectiveness of centralized disaster management.
While there were no fatalities, 151 people were injured due to panic, schools were closed for two days, and parks became temporary shelters for thousands. The psychological impact was profound, especially in the shadow of the 2023 disaster and the well-publicized vulnerabilities of the city’s building stock.
This latest event has reignited urgent discussions about preparedness. The expansion and upgrading of gathering areas, the strengthening of water, sewage and electricity infrastructure, and – most critically – the acceleration of urban transformation must be prioritized.
In Istanbul, advertisements, public relations and event organization cannot come before seismic safety. Both national and local actors must act urgently and cooperatively. The issue is not political; it is existential for Istanbul and for Türkiye.
The warning has been given, once in 2023 and again in 2025. Let’s hope it’s the last reminder before the real test comes.