President-elect Donald Trump who has pledged to end the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, two large foreign policy concerns for the U.S., is preparing to return to the White House come January. Trump may deliver his promise by benefiting from the “excellence in diplomacy” offered by one country close to both conflicts, Türkiye, according to renowned U.S. economist Jeffrey Sachs.
In an interview with Anadolu Agency (AA), Sachs, director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University, reflected on the potential impacts of Trump’s return to office on global foreign policy and economic relations, highlighting Türkiye’s unique potential role as an ally and peace broker.
While Trump’s unpredictable approach could yield both promising and concerning outcomes, Sachs believes he might have opportunities for a breakthrough in these longstanding conflicts.
“One positive feature is that he may act to end the war in Ukraine. This is a war that has been caused basically by the U.S. intention to expand NATO to Ukraine, and Russia’s resistance to having NATO expand to Ukraine. This was a bad idea of the United States for 30 years, and it finally led to war,” Sachs noted.
“Trump is, I think, interested in ending this war. The way to end the war is a basic deal that NATO will not expand to Ukraine and Russia will stop the fighting. I think that is possible. That would be good news.”
However, Sachs expressed concern over Trump’s likely approach in the Middle East and staunch support for Israel, describing the financial backing he’s received from “Zionist extremists” as a potential obstacle to balanced diplomacy in the region.
“What is needed right now is the two-state solution. Whether Trump is a diplomat or just a supporter of Netanyahu is the real question now,” he said.
Looming global isolation
During his previous term in office, Trump gave a “carte blanche” to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who, Sachs said, is now “leading a genocide in Gaza,” where Tel Aviv’s offensive has killed 43,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, since October last year, with the risk of drawing the U.S. into war with Iran.
Besides the massive death toll in Gaza, Israel’s onslaught continues to displace almost the entire population of the territory amid an ongoing blockade that has led to severe shortages of food, clean water and medicine.
Israel, also facing a genocide case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for its actions in Gaza, is “absolutely reckless, absolutely extremist, and committing grave war crimes and spreading violence,” said Sachs. “Netanyahu is not in control.”
“We will see if Trump has any limits to his support for Israel. Maybe he will understand that he has got to stop this spreading war in the Middle East,” he said, highlighting that the only way to peace lies in facilitating Palestinian statehood, a route supported by “almost the entire world other than the U.S. and Israel.”
Pointing out the vested interest Trump and the U.S. have in keeping good relations with Arab nations, Türkiye, and the Islamic world more generally, he said that these countries, along with the BRICS group, African Union, and others are calling on Washington to change course and stop blocking Palestine’s entry into the U.N.
“Whether the U.S. listens right now is the big question. If it doesn’t, the U.S. will be diplomatically isolated from all the rest of the world,” said Sachs. “The U.S. is the only remaining obstacle to a State of Palestine in the U.N. since Israel does not have a veto over it.”
Türkiye: Possible guide to peace
In Sachs’ view, Türkiye could be a valuable adviser to the U.S. on how to end the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. “There is no country in the world that understands the Black Sea region, the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East better than Türkiye. There is no country that has had more intensive diplomacy than Türkiye because Türkiye has been at this for 400 years.”
Turkish politicians and diplomats are especially well-versed in navigating relations with Russia and Middle Eastern countries, he said. Referring to the near-success of Türkiye’s mediation between Ukraine and Russia in March 2022, Sachs suggested that Türkiye could help the U.S. see a path to ending the Ukraine war.
“The war in the Middle East will end when there is a State of Palestine. Turkish diplomats can explain that to the U.S. So, I think the best thing that Türkiye can do is to help the U.S. to get its foreign policy right. Türkiye’s excellence in diplomacy is really important especially now,” he said.
Sachs also noted that Türkiye’s own interests align strongly with achieving peace, as prolonged conflicts hinder the dynamic economic growth and development that it could achieve in peacetime.
Policy ‘rethink’ needed in Europe
On transatlantic relations, Sachs predicted that Trump and his administration will not be “very friendly” to Europe, as possible tariffs loom on the horizon.
According to an analysis by the London School of Economics, his proposed tariffs could potentially reshape international trade relations and supply chains with significant consequences for the EU and its trade priorities.
The study estimates the tariffs could shrink the U.S. economy by 0.64%, China’s by 0.68%, and the EU’s by 0.11%. However, certain sectors, such as Germany’s automobile exports, would bear a disproportionate impact, requiring protective measures.
“So, if Europe is smart, it will rethink its policies, reengage with China and Russia. It should look for a peaceful settlement between Ukraine and Russia. It should drop the rhetoric about defeating Russia which has always been a naive and dangerous idea.”
According to Sachs, the EU’s severing of ties with Russia, combined with strained relations with China, has been a costly mistake.
“I hope that the European leaders come to understand that they cannot just blindly follow the U.S.,” Sachs said, emphasizing the consequences this approach has had for the European economy.
China, Taiwan, US tensions
As an “ardent protectionist,” Trump also wants to see Chinese imports to U.S. markets curbed, according to Sachs, who cautioned that current U.S. policies regarding Taiwan could lead to an open conflict.
He pointed to increasing defense engagements between Taipei and Washington that have worried Beijing, which claims Taiwan as its “breakaway province.”
“I think we are heading toward an open conflict with China unless the U.S. changes its policy,” he warned, adding that this risk could be eased by Elon Musk – a top campaign backer of the president-elect – who is likely to urge him to stabilize relations with Beijing.”
“If the U.S. stops sending arms to Taiwan, the risk of a U.S.-China war will drop dramatically,” he said.