The Mediterranean Turkish city of Antalya, venue of the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, will host another high-profile diplomatic event on Thursday. Foreign ministers of NATO member states started arriving in the province for the summit, which will officially open on Thursday. Speaking ahead of the informal meeting, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte highlighted Türkiye’s significant role, particularly in resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict through a much-anticipated meeting in Istanbul, also scheduled for Thursday.
“President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is an amazing leader within NATO and really respected by his colleagues,” Rutte told Anadolu Agency (AA) in Antalya on Wednesday. “I think there is this window of opportunity this week, but also in the next 10 days, two weeks, to really bring the whole issue of Ukraine to a better place. Under the leadership, of course, of President (Volodymyr) Zelenskyy, but also very much steered by the American government. And Türkiye plays a big role here,” Rutte told AA.
The NATO chief also touched upon the sale of Eurofighter jets to Türkiye, a thorny issue for Europe. “I encourage not imposing restrictions on arms sales by one ally on another. This should not happen within the alliance,” he said. The Eurofighter Typhoon jets are built by a consortium of Germany, Britain, Italy and Spain, represented by companies Airbus, BAE Systems and Leonardo.
Türkiye has been in negotiations to acquire up to 40 Eurofighters to enhance its air force. Germany initially opposed the deal before taking a step toward clearing it a few months ago.
Türkiye, despite boasting NATO’s second-largest army, has often in the past faced arms embargoes. That pushed it to significantly boost domestic capabilities and curb foreign dependence over the last two decades.
Rutte further underlined the importance of Türkiye’s defense industry to NATO, saying: “The Turkish defense industry is crucial to the overall alliance.” “For example, in Texas, there are factories producing ammunition. They could not have done that without the close cooperation of the companies here in Türkiye. This is just one of many examples.”
NATO’s foreign ministers will weigh a deal on boosting defense spending, as members race to meet U.S. President Donald Trump’s push for a 5% GDP target ahead of next month’s summit.
The two-day gathering comes as diplomatic intrigue swirls over a possible meeting across the country in Istanbul between Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russia’s Vladimir Putin. But it will be the internal wrangling over NATO’s spending target that dominates the meat of the debate on Thursday among foreign ministers, with just over six weeks before leaders come face-to-face with Trump in The Hague.
Trump has piled on pressure ahead of the summit by insisting he wants NATO to agree to devote 5% of GDP to defense – a level no member, including the U.S., currently reaches. The volatile former reality TV star has rattled European allies worried about the menace from Russia by threatening not to protect countries that, in his eyes, don’t spend enough. In a bid to prevent him from blowing up the alliance, NATO boss Mark Rutte has floated a proposal for allies to commit to 3.5% of direct military spending by 2032, as well as another 1.5% of broader security-related expenditure. That would hand Trump the headline figure he’s demanding while giving enough wiggle room to European allies, who are struggling just to reach NATO’s current spending threshold of 2%. “Trump will be able to claim victory and say that he got NATO to spend 5%,” one senior NATO diplomat, talking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. “In reality, it will be more complicated than that – but that will be the essential political message from the summit.”
‘Not a grab bag’
Diplomats say that Rutte’s plan, which hasn’t been made public, envisions ratcheting up direct defence spending by 0.2% each year over the next seven years until countries hit the 3.5% target. The other 1.5% of more loosely defined spending could include a wide range of areas, including infrastructure, cyberdefence, border controls and even support for Ukraine. Diplomats admit it’s a budgetary sleight-of-hand aimed at softening the blow for countries, such as Canada, Spain and Italy, who are still only just limping toward 2%.
They say some countries are pushing for more time to reach the new target and to stretch the broader spending parameters as wide as possible. But European heavyweights France and Germany seem on board – especially as Berlin has opened the doors for a major splurge on defense. And the main thing for now appears the United States is already throwing its weight behind the plan – making officials optimistic of reaching a deal. “This new Hague investment pledge or plan is going to include all of the capability targets necessary for NATO allies to deter and defend, but it also includes things like mobility, infrastructure, necessary infrastructure, cybersecurity,” U.S. NATO Ambassador Matthew Whitaker said. “It is definitely more than just missiles, tanks and howitzers, but at the same time, it’s got to be defense-related. It is not a grab bag for everything that you could possibly imagine.”
Short and sweet?
Looming beyond the discussion on money are warnings from the U.S. that it could look in the future to pull out forces from Europe to focus on the threat from China.
For now, Washington says no firm decisions have been taken and it is conducting a review of its deployments worldwide. “We are having ongoing discussions with our allies to make sure that there are no security gaps,” Whitaker said. “We’re asking our European allies to be more capable and to be equal partners.” With a deal in the offing on spending, NATO is keen to avoid any other bones of contention potentially spoiling the summit. There is still no agreement on inviting Zelenskyy – who has a rocky relationship with Trump – to The Hague and it looks likely to depend on where things stand by then with the U.S. push to end Russia’s war. Meanwhile, diplomats say there is only likely to be one full session with leaders and a short declaration that avoids thorny issues such as Kyiv’s membership push.
NATO, Türkiye
Speaking to broadcaster TRT Haber ahead of the Antalya meeting, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said that the meeting was very crucial and the fact that Türkiye is hosting it made it more significant. He told on Wednesday that he would also hold bilateral talks with his U.S. counterpart Marco Rubio and Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani following the Antalya meeting.
He stated that the Russia-Ukraine conflict would also be discussed at the meeting and expressed hope that Türkiye would be able to discuss the matter in a fruitful way. He said that other topics influencing the region and affecting Euro-Atlantic security, such as war and genocide in Gaza, would also be discussed.
Fidan noted that Rutte held talks with President Erdoğan on Tuesday and they reaffirmed the strategic framework of NATO-Türkiye relations. Fidan himself held a bilateral meeting with Rutte later. “We discussed the alliance’s agenda related to issues sensitive for Türkiye. “We relayed our views on issues the NATO secretary-general should tackle. We exchanged views,” he added.
Fidan will also be occupied with the expected Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul on Thursday. He said he was scheduled to meet his Ukrainian counterpart later on Tuesday ahead of the expected talks. He expressed hope that the new round of talks was more promising at this point. “We need to build confidence. Leaving the sides to their own devices makes it difficult to build trust between them. Reliable actors need to intervene. Türkiye is one of them,” he said.