As global power dynamics shift, Russia finds itself at the crossroads of major geopolitical transformations. With tariff wars around the globe and the uncertain trajectory of multipolar alliances like NATO and BRICS, Russia’s strategic choices will shape the future of global politics. Clearly, the most significant factor in this transformation is Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency. His isolationist tendencies reduce Western cohesion, forcing European nations to develop independent security strategies while providing Russia with strategic leverage.
Trump has often expressed a conciliatory stance toward Russia, unlike previous U.S. administrations. With Trump 2.0’s rapprochement with Russia, hidden and historical cracks in the China-Russia alliance could also emerge again. As Beijing grows economically and militarily, it naturally seeks to expand its regional influence. Meanwhile, Russia remains cautious about any intrusion into its traditional sphere of control.
For the U.S., it does not make sense to fight against Russia since Moscow does not have the potential to challenge U.S. hegemony, while China does. That is why treating Beijing as the primary long-term geopolitical challenge makes more sense for Washington. The U.S. did A similar move as “Kissinger reverse” in the 1970s, but only with swapping the actors.
Kissinger reverse
During the Cold War, the U.S. and the Soviet Union were the two main global superpowers. Under Mao Zedong, China was also a communist state but had growing tensions with the USSR throughout the Sino-Soviet Split. By the late 1960s, relations between China and the Soviet Union had deteriorated to the point of border clashes, which resulted in hundreds of casualties from both sides.
The Nixon administration realized it could play China against the Soviet Union by forming diplomatic ties with Beijing. The idea was to weaken Soviet power by warming up to its rival, China. Then U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger secretly traveled to Beijing in 1971, paving the way for Nixon’s historic visit to China in 1972. This led to the Shanghai Communiqué, where the U.S. and China agreed to a cooperative relationship, isolating the USSR.
Marriage of convenience
The relationship between the USSR and China remained sour till the 1990s. In 2001, two global powers signed the Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship and solved their territorial disputes conclusively in 2003. Thereafter, it became one of the most critical geopolitical alliances of the 21st century. Once Cold War adversaries, Beijing and Moscow have drawn closer in recent years, particularly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. While some see this as a strong partnership, others argue that their cooperation is merely a “marriage of convenience,” a short-term strategic alignment driven by mutual benefits rather than structural ties.
Despite historical rivalries and differences, several factors have pushed China and Russia into a closer partnership. Both nations view American influence as a threat to their interests. It is based on shared opposition to the West and economic necessity rather than deep ideological unity. China is the largest buyer of Russian oil and gas, benefiting from discounted prices. In 2023, China-Russia trade hit around $240 billion, a record high. Thanks to the “Power of Siberia” natural gas pipeline, Russia could divert gas from Europe to China, but at lower prices than European markets.
Russia’s dependency on China
Although the alliance seems strong for now, there is a clear power asymmetry in favor of China. Before the Ukraine war, Russia had diverse trading partners, including European countries. Now, China is its primary economic partner, making Russia dependent on Beijing more than ever. While China is Russia’s largest economic partner, Russia is only China’s sixth. At the moment, Russia needs China more than China needs Russia, making Russian President Vladimir Putin’s position weaker. Also, China is now economically outcompeting Russia in the region through its Belt and Road Initiative.
Moscow and Beijing have historical tensions, and their interests occasionally diverge, especially regarding Central Asia and the Arctic. Also, China has a historical claim to Vladivostok, which was handed to the Russian Empire in 1860 as part of the Convention of Peking signed during “the century of humiliation.” Under the treaty, the boundary between China and Russia was set along the Amur and Ussuri Rivers, which gave Russia access to Vladivostok, a major port city in Russia’s Far East.
In 2013, the Chinese Ministry of Natural Resources issued a decree on using names on international maps. According to the decree, some cities in Russia must now carry Chinese names, replacing their Russian ones. The best known, Vladivostok, the administrative capital of the region, is now to be officially called “Haishenwai” (meaning Sea Cucumber Bay). This move can be read as a potential future reassertion of Chinese claims over the Russian east.
Instinctively, the more China gets stronger economically and militarily, the more it will seek to expand its influence in the region. Russia remains wary of any encroachment on its traditional sphere of control. Although both nations have largely buried the hatchet for a while, incidents like the 1969 Sino-Soviet border conflict are reminders of the potential for rivalry between Russia and China.
Future of BRICS
Russia has been a key advocate of a multipolar world order to counter the hegemony of the U.S. and actively supports BRICS, which has nearly 30% of global GDP and half of the world’s population. However, the evolving new world order will also bring changes and challenges to the alliance; it will need to be shaped accordingly. If not, it might cease to exist or just be present on paper. The new roles of Russia and China in the new world order will be especially decisive in the future of the alliance.
BRICS is often seen as a possible alternative to G-7-led institutions. The alliance has 10 members, with Russia and China being among the founding members. China bears the economic weight of the alliance with its nearly $18 trillion GDP, while Russia takes the lead in political and military aspects, leveraging its geopolitical influence and defense capabilities. Given these dynamics, both countries play a vital role in the group. However, internal conflicts could hinder the overall effectiveness of the bloc.
If Trump 2.0 attempts to lure Russia away from China, Moscow may try to play both sides for maximum geopolitical advantage. Especially if cracks emerge between Moscow and Beijing, the alliance would not mean much without the collaboration of the two.
To sum up, Russia’s future in the changing world order depends on its strategic maneuvering in an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape. Whether it seeks a realignment with the U.S., deepens its ties with China, or maintains a careful balancing act, its choices will have profound consequences for the new global order.