For centuries, Türkiye and Iraq have shared a complex and evolving relationship shaped by their common Ottoman past, cultural ties and overlapping strategic interests. However, this history has also been marked by moments of tension and competition, particularly in the post-Ottoman period. Today, as Iraq navigates its internal challenges and regional dynamics, Türkiye must contend with the reality of Iranian influence in Baghdad, balancing its historic ties and strategic ambitions against the backdrop of growing regional rivalries.
The Ottoman Empire ruled over the territories of modern-day Iraq from the 16th century until its dissolution after World War I. While this period fostered administrative cohesion and economic integration, it also sowed the seeds of future tensions. The Ottoman system of governance, which emphasized religious and ethnic pluralism, laid the foundation for Iraq’s diverse societal fabric, but the fall of the empire left a power vacuum that would later be exploited by competing foreign interests.
For Türkiye, the Ottoman legacy is both a source of soft power and a historical point of contention. In Iraq, some political factions, particularly those with strong nationalist or sectarian leanings, view Türkiye’s interest in the region as neo-Ottomanism – a desire to reassert influence reminiscent of its imperial past. This perception complicates Ankara’s efforts to build trust, especially in predominantly Shiite regions more closely aligned with Iran.
Challenges to Ankara’s goals
Since the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, Iran has steadily expanded its influence, filling the void left by the collapse of Saddam Hussein’s regime. Tehran’s strategy has involved cultivating ties with Iraq’s Shiite-majority political parties, paramilitary groups like the Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Forces – PMF), and economic elites. This influence extends to critical sectors, including energy, infrastructure and defense, giving Iran significant leverage over Baghdad’s domestic and foreign policy.
For Ankara, this presents a dual challenge. On the one hand, Iran’s dominance limits Türkiye’s ability to exert influence in Baghdad, particularly on issues such as trade routes, security cooperation and energy policy. On the other hand, Tehran’s support for militias in northern Iraq threatens Türkiye’s national security, as these groups often operate in proximity to PKK strongholds.
In the post-2003 political realignment following the toppling of Saddam Hussein, Iran-backed political parties, such as the Islamic Dawa Party and the Fatah Alliance, have dominated Iraq’s political landscape, often sidelining Sunni and Turkmen representation, which Türkiye supports. Iran and Türkiye vie for influence in Iraq’s lucrative energy and construction sectors. While Turkish companies have made inroads, Iranian firms benefit from Baghdad’s reliance on Tehran for electricity and natural gas. The presence of Iran-aligned militias, some of which have clashed with Turkish forces in northern Iraq, adds a layer of complexity to Ankara’s military operations against the PKK and pursuing large-scale investments in the country.
Turkmen-Kurdish dynamics
The Turkmen community has long been a cornerstone of Türkiye’s cultural and strategic engagement in Iraq. Concentrated in contested areas such as Kirkuk, Tal Afar and Mosul, the Turkmen are viewed by Ankara as a natural ally and a counterbalance to both Kurdish aspirations for independence and Iranian-backed Shiite dominance. While the Iraqi Turkmen Front (ITF) represents a significant political voice, internal divisions and limited support from Baghdad have weakened its effectiveness.
The city of Kirkuk remains a flashpoint. Türkiye has historically opposed any move to incorporate Kirkuk into the KRG, arguing that it would marginalize the Turkmen population. This stance has put Ankara at odds with Irbil and, at times, Baghdad.
The Kurdish question adds another layer of complexity. While Ankara maintains robust economic ties with the KRG, particularly in the oil sector, it remains wary of Kurdish separatism. Türkiye’s military presence in northern Iraq, justified as part of its anti-terror operations against the PKK, often strains relations with both Baghdad and Irbil.
Competing visions for Iraq
Ankara’s vision for Iraq emphasizes economic integration, territorial integrity and regional stability. This vision aligns with key initiatives such as the Development Road Project, which seeks to transform Iraq into a trade and logistics hub linking the Gulf to Europe via Türkiye. However, this vision directly clashes with Iran’s strategy of keeping Iraq within its sphere of influence as part of its “Shiite Crescent” policy.
While Türkiye conducts cross-border operations against the PKK, Iran-backed militias operate under the guise of the PMF, often challenging Iraqi sovereignty and complicating Turkish military efforts. The assassination of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani in 2020 temporarily weakened Iran’s grip but also led to increased anti-Türkiye rhetoric among certain Iraqi factions. Türkiye remains one of Iraq’s top trading partners, with bilateral trade exceeding $13 billion (TL 452.56 billion) in recent years. Yet, Iran’s economic footprint, particularly in southern Iraq, presents a formidable challenge. Key Turkish projects, such as the Ovaköy border crossing, aim to bypass Iranian-controlled routes, signaling Ankara’s desire to reduce Baghdad’s reliance on Tehran. Türkiye’s ability to mediate between Baghdad and Irbil has positioned it as a stabilizing force. However, Iran’s influence often undercuts Turkish efforts, particularly in the context of Iraqi elections and government formation.
Several key figures have shaped this strategic rivalry and partnership. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has emphasized Türkiye’s role as a regional power, advocating for closer ties with Sunni and Turkmen factions in Iraq. On the Iraqi side, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani has sought to balance relations with both Ankara and Tehran, recognizing the economic and security benefits of Turkish engagement while remaining beholden to Iran-aligned political factions.
In the Iranian camp, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and figures like Esmail Qaani, commander of the Quds Force, continue to drive Tehran’s agenda in Iraq, leveraging both hard and soft power to maintain their influence.
The historical and cultural ties between Türkiye and Iraq provide a vital foundation for bilateral relations, but the road ahead is fraught with challenges. Ankara’s ability to navigate its rivalry with Tehran while maintaining strong ties with both Baghdad and Irbil will determine the future trajectory of Turkish-Iraqi relations.
In this evolving geopolitical landscape, Türkiye must leverage its economic and military strengths, coupled with its cultural diplomacy, to counter Iranian hegemony and promote a vision of regional stability that aligns with its interests.