Thirteen years of Bashar Assad’s dictatorship toppled in 13 days. Former Syrian regime leader Assad is a refugee in Moscow now. Millions of Syrians scattered across the world due to the civil war are planning to return home.
Everything happened very fast, but the images from the field show that there is no chaos in the country. We are not witnessing in Syria the atrocities that took place in Iraq or Libya after they overthrew their dictators. All minorities are safe, including Christians. Trade is already booming.
Those who have taken power are signaling that they will handle the transition with maturity. Official state records are carefully guarded. Soldiers and police officers have been granted amnesty. They have been told to leave their weapons and vehicles and return home. A large-scale witch-hunt against the bureaucracy is also not expected.
If the pieces fall into place in Syria, Iran’s region-stirring influence activities could be weakened and Tehran could retreat into its shell for at least the next four years. This is a welcome development for the Iranian people, whose resources are being wasted on sectarian politics. This setback will also contribute to Iraq’s independence from Tehran’s domination.
Russia, which is in Syria for its military bases in the Mediterranean port of Tartus, is also a loser like Iran. However, if Russian President Vladimir Putin does not lose his cool, he can establish relations with the new administration through Türkiye and protect its gains, even if only partially.
The U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration, which functioned as only a transitional government in the U.S., allowed Assad to be toppled by not preventing the opposition’s advance. They also continue to legitimize the YPG presence in northern Syria with the myth of Daesh. However, President-elect Donald Trump, who will assume the presidency in January, is not the kind of man who says, “Obama founded Daesh.” It will be difficult for the YPG to dazzle Trump with the fairy tale of “we are the secular power of the region” as it did with the previous administration. The new president will likely look for less costly partners to fulfill the YPG’s function.
For the moment, the only obstacle to the rapid normalization of Syria is Israel, which struck Damascus as soon as Assad fled. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to take advantage of the chaos before Trump takes office to expand the Israeli occupation of the Golan Heights. It has already taken control of strategic points. It is striking Syria’s military infrastructure. It seizes the opportunity to destroy the potential of Damascus and pose a threat to it.
The picture emerging in Syria is undoubtedly positive for Türkiye, which has been bearing the brunt of instability in its neighbors since the Gulf War. In fact, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s position in the process is also a great advantage for the Western bloc.
I think that Trump will see this situation and have a closer relationship with Türkiye in Syria in the coming period.
The European Union, which was paranoid about Türkiye’s solution of a safe zone in northern Syria at the beginning of the civil war and then blamed the refugee problem on Türkiye, seems to have wised up. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced earlier this week that she would visit Türkiye for talks with Erdoğan.
Syria’s biggest chance in the new era is that it is neighboring Türkiye, the only actor that has insisted on Syria’s territorial integrity since day one.