Hama stands in the way of anti-regime forces as they push to retake more cities from the Assad regime. Forces that captured Aleppo since last week’s launch of a lightning offensive encircled the key central city from three sides, a war monitor said, amid a counteroffensive by the Assad forces.
Hama is strategically located in central Syria, and for the army, it is crucial to safeguard the capital and seat of power, Damascus.
The anti-regime forces “have surrounded Hama city from three sides and are now present at a distance of 3 to 4 kilometers (1.9 to 2.5 miles) from it,” the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. The Britain-based Observatory, which relies on a network of sources in Syria, said the government forces were “left with only one exit toward Homs to the south.”
Key to the anti-regime forces’ successes since the start of the offensive last week was the takeover of Aleppo, which, in more than a decade of war, had never entirely fallen out of regime hands.
The head of the anti-regime group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, on Wednesday visited Aleppo’s landmark citadel. Images posted on the anti-regime forces’ Telegram channel showed Jolani waving to supporters from an open-top car as he visited the historic fortress.
In Hama, 36-year-old delivery driver Wassim said the sounds were “really terrifying,” and the continuous bombing was clearly audible. “I’ll stay home because I have nowhere else to flee to,” he said.
While the advancing anti-regime forces found little resistance earlier in their offensive, the fighting around Hama has been especially fierce.
Assad ordered a 50% raise in career soldiers’ pay, the regime-run Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) reported, as he seeks to bolster his forces for the counteroffensive.
A regime army source cited by SANA had earlier reported “fierce battles” against the anti-regime forces in northern Hama province since morning, adding that “joint Syrian-Russian warplanes” were part of the effort. The Observatory said regime forces brought “large military convoys to Hama” and its outskirts in the past 24 hours. “Dozens of trucks” loaded with tanks, weapons, ammunition and soldiers headed toward the city, it said. It said “regime forces and pro-regime fighters led by Russian and Iranian officers were able to repel” an attack northwest of Hama. It also said the fighting was close to an area mainly populated by Alawites, followers of the same offshoot of Shiite Islam as the president. German news agency Deutsche Presse-Agentur (dpa) announced the killing of its award-winning Syrian photographer, Anas Alkharboutli, in an airstrike near Hama.
The United Nations on Wednesday said 115,000 people have been “newly displaced across Idlib and northern Aleppo” by the fighting.
The Observatory says the violence has killed 704 people, mostly combatants but also 110 civilians.
Until last week, the war in Syria had been mostly dormant for several years, but analysts have said the violence was bound to flare up as it was never truly resolved.
“Many policymakers thought, well, Assad won, there is no war,” said Rim Turkmani, director of the Syria Conflict Research Programme at the London School of Economics. But “we’ve been worrying about this for years, that the fact that there is no intense violence doesn’t mean that the conflict is over,” she told AFP.
While the anti-regime forces may have advanced swiftly, it does not mean they will have the capacity to hold onto the territory they have captured.
“It’s very well organized, ideologically driven,” Turkmani said. “However, they spread very quickly and very thin. And I think very quickly they’re going to realize it’s beyond their capacity to maintain these areas and, most importantly, to govern them.”
Assad under strain
Bashar Assad is under growing strain as his army suffers setbacks, the economy deteriorates, his support wanes and his government’s foreign backers are focused elsewhere.
The rapid fall of Aleppo has shaken Assad’s legitimacy and emboldened his opponents, analysts said.
While Damascus remains heavily fortified, and the regime forces launched counterattacks Wednesday with Russian air support, the loss of Aleppo, Syria’s commercial hub, is crucial.
“Assad’s regime fought ferociously from 2012 to 2016 to recapture half the city, so losing it so quickly represents a humiliating defeat and illustrates the fragility of regime rule in Syria,” said Charles Lister of the Middle East Institute.
The anti-regime forces’ advances caught many off guard, but Assad’s vulnerabilities are long-standing.
“Since 2011, Syria’s army has faced attrition in manpower, equipment and morale,” said David Rigoulet-Roze of the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs. Underpaid soldiers had reportedly looted resources to survive, and many young men evaded conscription, he said, adding that around Aleppo, Assad’s forces abandoned checkpoints.
The Istanbul-based Harmoon Center noted the military avoided confrontation, leaving behind large amounts of equipment – an indication of its weakness outside Damascus.
The collapse of Assad’s forces in Aleppo occurred despite military preparations, said Middle East researcher Aymenn al-Tamimi. He attributed the failure to “complacency” from Damascus and its allies “partly driven by the belief that the cease-fire arrangement in place since 2020 would ultimately hold.”
Western governments, which had largely written off the Syrian conflict, may need to reassess.
“The war, sanctions and a stagnant economy have eroded the regime’s popular support, even among those who backed it in 2011,” said Fabrice Balanche, author of “The Lessons from the Syrian Crisis.”
Rumors of coups circulated over the weekend, further tarnishing Assad’s image. “Three-quarters of the population lives below the poverty line, and discontent is growing across communities,” said Rigoulet-Roze.
“It’s not just about the Assad clan’s survival, but the entire Alawite community rallying behind the regime,” he said.
Compounding Assad’s challenges is the weakened support of his allies, Russia and Iran.
Russia remains mired in the war in Ukraine while Iran and the armed groups it supports, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah, suffered setbacks in fighting with Israel.
Russian airstrikes backed Assad’s forces near Hama on Wednesday, but analysts doubt he can retake Aleppo without significant ground support from allies.
Assad’s tilt toward Moscow has also irritated Tehran. “Assad knows his regime hangs by a thread and seeks to deepen ties with Moscow to reduce reliance on Iran,” said Rigoulet-Roze.
Tensions between Russia and Iran reflect mutual distrust despite shared interests in Syria.
Assad may also fear political repercussions. “He thought he had succeeded, and he has begun to fear that he will be forced to accept the implementation of Security Council Resolution 2254 of 2015, nine years after its issuance, and to accept a political transition,” said the Harmoon Center.
U.N. envoy’s talks
In related news, the U.N. on Wednesday reported that U.N. Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen met Syrian figures and international actors to reduce tensions. “Our Special Envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, has been working the phones with the full range of Syrian parties and key international stakeholders,” spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said at a news conference.
Dujarric said Pedersen met Wednesday in Geneva with representatives from Russia, Türkiye and the U.S. as part of an “ad hoc cease-fire task force” established by the International Syria Support Group (ISSG). It was established in February 2022 to “take immediate steps to secure the full support of all parties to the conflict for a cessation of hostilities,” according to the U.N. office of the special envoy of the secretary-general for Syria.
Dujarric said Pedersen held talks with the Iranian foreign minister’s senior advisor for special political affairs, Asghar Khaji, and Bassam al-Sabbagh, the Syrian regime’s foreign minister.
“Mr. Pedersen will soon be traveling to Doha for several meetings” to help de-escalate the situation in Syria, he added.
Emphasizing the importance of a political solution, Dujarric stated, “His message to all is the same: it is urgent to de-escalate, it is urgent to protect civilians, and it is urgent to prevent further bloodshed.”