Hard-right opposition leader George Simion led an opinion poll published on Monday, five weeks before the first round of a repeat presidential election that could determine whether Romania remains on its pro-Western course.
The European Union and NATO member which borders Ukraine will repeat the two-round election on May 4 and 18 after the Constitutional Court voided the initial ballot in December following accusations of Russian meddling, which Moscow denied.
With the cancelled election’s far-right frontrunner banned from running again, ultranationalists have regrouped around Simion, leader of the opposition Alliance for Uniting Romanians (AUR), Romania’s second-largest party.
An opinion poll conducted by polling institute Verifield and commissioned by Nicusor Dan, one of the candidates, showed Simion was on course to secure 35% of votes in the first round, slightly higher than in earlier polls.
It showed Victor Ponta, a former leftist prime minister whose politics have since become more ultranationalist, would win 21.1% of votes and that Bucharest mayor Dan, running as an independent, would get 20.8%.
The new poll put support for Simion’s AUR at 31.7% and showed the ruling Social Democrats trailing on 21.2%. It surveyed 1,100 people between March 24 and 28 and had a margin of error of 2.95%.
Simion’s party has developed from a fringe anti-vaccination group during the COVID pandemic into the leading opposition force, appealing to the working-class diaspora and young voters and building on popular anger with mainstream politicians.
Simion, 38, has supported restoring Romania’s pre-World War Two borders, which include areas now in Bulgaria, Moldova and Ukraine, and has been declared persona non grata in the latter two countries.
Ponta, 52, quit as prime minister in 2015 after a deadly nightclub fire led to big anti-corruption protests. He has said he backs what he calls “radical change” taking place in the United States and has courted voters with an ultranationalist leaning while backing Romania’s role in the EU and NATO.
Dan, 55, is a centrist who supports Romania’s EU and NATO membership and most current aid for Ukraine.
Romania’s president has a semi-executive role which includes chairing the council that decides on military aid and defence spending, and can veto EU votes that require unanimity.