Over the last century, the world population has undergone a dramatic transformation, particularly in terms of aging. In the early 20th century, the global population was relatively young due to high birth rates and shorter life expectancies. However, significant advancements in health care, nutrition and living standards have contributed to a remarkable increase in life expectancy worldwide. In 1900, the average life expectancy at birth was 32 years, which was the average for a newborn. However, this has more than doubled to 72 by 2024. Simultaneously, birth rates have declined, especially in developed countries, resulting in an aging population.
By midcentury, many countries began to experience demographic shifts characterized by a growing proportion of older adults. For instance, the global median age rose from about 24 in 1950 to approximately 30 in 2020. The United Nations projects that by 2050, one in six people globally will be aged 65 or older, compared to one in 11 in 2019.
This trend is most pronounced in developed regions such as Europe, Japan and North America, where aging populations now comprise a significant share of society. Conversely, developing regions, particularly in Africa and parts of Asia, still maintain a younger demographic profile but are also beginning to experience gradual aging due to improvements in health outcomes and declining fertility rates.
Challenge for welfare regimes
Population aging is an important demographic phenomenon that occurs as a result of low birth rates and increasing life expectancy, especially in the Global North and West. It has comprehensive effects in many areas, such as economic systems, social welfare regimes, and health care policies. If we summarize this trend with one sentence, people are living longer.
But what is wrong with people living longer? The problem is that the increase in the elderly population leads to a contraction of the labor market, sustainability problems in retirement systems and welfare regimes and an increase in health expenditures. While the public budgets become unsustainable, intergenerational solidarity collapses, a phenomenon harshly observed in the European Union and North America.
Developing countries, on the other hand, still have a structure that is predominantly young and they are candidates to follow a similar aging trend. However, the problem is that these countries experience the transition to the aging process much more rapidly than developed countries; they generally have lower economic resources and more limited social security systems. In other words, the window of opportunity is shorter and resources are scarce. This situation limits the effectiveness of the policies they develop against the aging crisis, putting them into a situation to grow novel socio-economic problems before solving the older ones.
Türkiye’s demographic reality
Türkiye is also undergoing a demographic transformation in this process, moving from a young population structure to an increasingly aging society. The last two decades have been full of shreds of evidence of this process, which is increasing in its acceleration.
It is nothing like the other countries have faced. For the first time in its century-long history, Türkiye is facing such a critical comprehensive demographic transformation. The latest data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (Turkstat) show that the country is strikingly evolving toward an aging population. As of 2023, the median age has increased to 34, which is a record for the history of the republic, while the proportion of individuals aged 65 and over has reached 10.2%. This situation has the potential to have serious impacts both economically and socially. A decline in fertility rate below the renewal rate of 2.1, which is labeled as the golden ratio and an increase in life expectancy at birth triggers this picture.
Türkiye’s age pyramid has changed significantly in the last two decades and the elderly population has increased due to the decrease in fertility rates and the increase in life expectancy. In 2023, the working-age population between the ages of 15-64 was at 68.3%, while the child population between the ages of 0-14 decreased to 21.4%. The elderly dependency ratio increased in 2023 to 15%, indicating that it will impose an increasing economic burden on working-age individuals in the future.
While the economic burden of the aging population increases the need for social welfare state models, retirement and health expenditures, in particular, are expected to increase significantly. The increasing need for care for elderly individuals creates pressure on the social structure as well as explicit costs. The private and public sectors in Türkiye may be insufficient to meet these increasing demands.
Policy recommendations
Although the reality of an aging population has emerged, the young population that Türkiye still has is offering a great advantage. Integrating the young population into economic and social life can help the country maintain its development potential. However, for this, policies regarding education, employment and technology must be implemented, which are all critical to avoiding hitting the wall of an aging crisis. Like a car braking before hitting a wall, the country needs to quickly hit the brakes of preventive policy if it doesn’t want to be seriously harmed by the devastating effects of aging.
The policy steps that Türkiye should take before entering an aging crisis should include a qualified assessment of the young population, strengthening social protection networks for elderly individuals and making long-term economic plans. Some of the most critical policy recommendations that stand out in this context can be underlined.
The first of these is the care and dependency policies. The development of social services for the care of elderly individuals and encouragement of private sector investments in this area is necessary. Under this, the implementation of care insurance is necessary. The country must establish a premium-based social care insurance model. If it is established today, this model will ameliorate the harsh effects of the increasing need for care in the aged population, which will emerge in the near future.
Furthermore, it is necessary to develop a health infrastructure that aligns with the health needs of elderly individuals and invest in long-term care services. Prioritizing preventive health care models is critical. Avoiding someone to become cancer or diabetes is thousands less costless than caring for their health after becoming chronically ill.
The retirement system, alongside the social services and social assistance system of the Ministry of Family and Social Services, should be reformed and long-term financial continuity should be ensured. This should be done without contracting the current benefits but by ensuring resource efficiency and avoiding waste prevention. It is imperative to ensure the sustainability of the social security and social welfare system and to create additional support mechanisms for low-income elderly individuals. Ensuring the participation of elderly people in the economy is also of utmost importance. Senior people should be encouraged to participate in society rather than being passive recipients.
As for the youth, strengthening their vocational training is essential. One of the biggest problems in the country is youth unemployment, which exacerbates the aging crisis. Vocational training programs and employment incentives should be accelerated to create employed youth who are trained in their profession at the highest level.
Increasing fertility by implementing family-friendly policies is also an effective policy. Parental leave, child care support and flexible working models can reduce families’ reservations about having children. Likewise, financial incentive policies such as maternity benefits, financial support for child care and tax advantages can increase fertility. It is also imperative to raise public awareness about the social and economic effects of population aging.
The last thing to be mentioned is increasing demographic R&D. Technology-focused solutions and research should be developed to reduce the costs of an aging population. It is necessary to create comprehensive scenarios for the future by collecting detailed data on demographic changes.
Point of no return
In sum, while the global population has grown rapidly over the past century, it has also aged significantly, with the pace and extent of aging varying greatly across regions. This demographic transition presents unique challenges and opportunities for governments, economies and societies worldwide.
Within the scope of the activities of 2025, which was declared the Year of Family by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in recent days, practices such as increasing the childbirth allowance, providing interest-free marriage loans to young people and supporting flexible working hours of women are essentially measures taken to reduce the effects of the aging crisis depicted in this commentary. However, these measures need to be increased and be proactive rather than passive.
Türkiye, as a developing country, has entered the fast pace of aging. The windows of opportunity for the country are closing at rate bat as we speak. It is now an irreversible process, which brings its opportunities alongside being a threat. It is too late for slowdown measures such as the three-child policy or passive incentives for families. In fact, this is a natural process for all developing economies. The problem is in its pace. The country should take steps today to control its aging population structure and turn the advantage of its young population into maximum benefit.
The demographic crisis could become a problem that threatens national interests economically and socially if action is not taken now. Aging constitutes a very existential threat to the future of the Turkish nation. Long-term strategic planning and determined implementations could enable this crisis to be turned into an opportunity.