Following the collapse of the Assad regime on Dec. 8, Syria stands on the brink of a new era. Syrians, who have paid a heavy price for their freedom, now cautiously hold high hopes for the future. The revolution was led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa. As a result, the transitional period is currently under the leadership of al-Sharaa, who toppled the former regime.
The challenge is now translating a military victory into a sustainable political transition. While the transition process currently appears relatively stable, serious difficulties still loom on the horizon – including preserving territorial unity, halting Israeli attacks and addressing economic and social problems.
Transitions from authoritarian rule to democracy, especially following protracted conflict or civil war, often share common patterns. Examining these patterns can provide valuable insights into Syria’s ongoing process.
Maintaining inclusivity, legitimacy
A key principle in such transitions is prioritizing inclusiveness and legitimacy, as prolonged conflicts deepen social cleavages and undermine national integration.
It must be acknowledged that Syria’s transition remains extremely fragile due to the country’s challenging political, economic, security and social conditions. Prolonged conflict not only devastates infrastructure and human capital but also sows deep divisions and resentment among social groups. Such turmoil inevitably shakes the nation’s foundations, often leading to social fragmentation and institutional collapse.
Therefore, the transitional period in Syria must prioritize reconciliation and actively seek to heal internal hostilities. At this point, adopting a victim-centric approach to transitional justice is crucial. Lessons from similar historical cases demonstrate that retributive justice seeking revenge will cause conflicts to recur.
Multiple pathways exist to facilitate reconciliation, yet inclusivity stands paramount. Adopting a participatory and inclusive approach to governance and political processes is essential for rebuilding public trust in the state.
Strengthening citizens’ sense of belonging reduces risks of fragmentation and prevents the pursuit of potentially destabilizing “alternatives.” For lasting stability and democratic consolidation, the emerging political order must be regarded as “the only game in town,” as political scientists Juan J. Linz and Alfred Stepan put it.
Preserving legitimacy is equally vital for rebuilding confidence in the state and sustaining peace. While inclusive and participatory governance reinforces legitimacy, refraining from arbitrary practices remains critical. Legitimacy can be most effectively ensured through a clear legal framework and strict adherence to the rule of law. Without rule-based governance, the legitimacy derived from revolution may be short-lived.
Filling constitutional vacuum
The Victory Conference on Jan. 29, attended by various military groups, officially declared the end of the Assad regime. It selected al-Sharaa as interim president, dissolved the Baath Party and abolished the 2012 Constitution. Yet, the most significant step toward a successful transition was the National Dialogue Conference in Damascus on Feb. 25. This conference was particularly notable due to its inclusive preparatory process, involving representatives from diverse ethnic and religious groups.
Its primary purpose was to outline a clear road map and establish founding principles for the new Syrian state and the transition period. The conference concluded with a final statement laying down guiding principles, which include maintaining Syria’s unity and sovereignty; ensuring that the possession and use of weapons and force remain exclusively with the state; drafting temporary and permanent constitutional frameworks; safeguarding human rights, explicitly those of women and children; freedom of speech, rejecting all forms of discrimination based on race, religion or sect; reforming public institutions and judicial system, achieving transitional justice; and fostering economic development.
The constitutional vacuum following the revolution created fertile ground for arbitrariness and instability. A constitution safeguards individual rights and freedoms and provides a framework for good governance.
Consequently, a committee was formed to draft a provisional constitutional document aligned with the outcomes of the National Dialogue Conference’s results. The committee swiftly prepared a draft and offered it to al-Sharaa, who approved it as the Temporary Constitutional Declaration. Comprising 53 articles divided into four sections, this declaration will serve as a constitutional framework for the next five years until a permanent constitution and elected bodies can be put in place.
Characteristics of new state
Before analyzing the governmental system detailed in the declaration, it is essential to highlight the rights, freedoms and fundamental objectives it encompasses.
According to the declaration, its primary sources of legitimacy are the revolution itself and the National Dialogue Conference. Many of the declaration’s articles explicitly align with principles articulated in the conference’s final statement.
The declaration emphasizes the principle of a unitary state, defining the Syrian Arab Republic as “an indivisible geographical and political unit,” a clear signal to entities such as the PKK terrorist group’s Syrian wing YPG, which controls parts of the country’s northeast.
The official name, capital and language of the state remain as the Syrian Arab Republic, Damascus and Arabic, respectively. Although the removal of the word “Arab” from the state’s official title was debated to embrace greater diversity, a broad consensus favored its retention, reflecting Syria’s predominantly Arab identity. Nevertheless, the declaration importantly provides guarantees for the linguistic and cultural rights of all citizens, aimed at protecting and fostering a sense of belonging among non-Arab communities.
Furthermore, the declaration commits itself to international human rights treaties previously ratified by Syria, explicitly recognizing them as its integral parts. This commitment is crucial given Syria’s prior ratification of significant U.N. treaties, such as the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights and the Convention Against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment.
Islamic Law continues as the principal source of legislation, a provision mirroring the 2012 Constitution drafted under the secular Baath regime. Similar provisions appear in Egypt’s Constitution, demonstrating that recognizing Islamic law holds cultural and national importance within Arab societies, independent of specific ideological contexts.
Alongside these ethnic and religious considerations, the declaration explicitly safeguards freedom of belief and worship, provided religious practices do not disturb public order. Therefore, recognizing Islamic law as a primary legislative source should be interpreted alongside these explicit guarantees for religious freedom.
System of government
The declaration establishes a presidentially centered governmental system, though Article 2 asserts a commitment to upholding the separation of powers. Under this framework, the president of the Republic – currently al-Sharaa – directly appoints one-third of the members of the People’s Assembly. The remaining assembly members are elected via electoral committees, themselves indirectly appointed by the president.
The president also wields considerable authority over the legislative process. Firstly, he has the right to propose laws. Secondly, he holds veto power over laws enacted by the People’s Assembly. Such vetoes can only be overridden by a two-thirds majority.
Nevertheless, the assembly retains classical parliamentary powers, including lawmaking, budgetary oversight and parliamentary oversight through holding hearings for ministers, approving general amnesty and ratifying international treaties.
On the executive side, the president possesses all necessary powers to rebuild the state institutions and guide the transitional process.
In conclusion, this declaration should not be seen as a full-fledged constitution but rather as a transitional legal framework designed to secure stability at Syria’s critical juncture.
Navigating the challenges ahead will require sustained efforts toward reconciliation, inclusivity and adherence to rule-based governance. Ensuring public security and revitalizing the economy will be key to overcoming obstacles. International support will also play a crucial role in the success of the transitional process.