The dissolution of the PKK and laying down its arms is a historical turning point in the political history of Türkiye. It is an indication of the increased strategic autonomy of the country and a result of the normalization of Turkish domestic politics. With the latest decision made by the PKK, Türkiye gets rid of an important and long-time political fault line. It is a huge step taken for the initiation of the “Century of Türkiye,” declared by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan several years ago.
Many internal and external factors and dynamics contributed to the PKK’s decision to lay down arms and dissolve itself.
Domestic factors
The most important domestic factor that induced the dissolution of the PKK is Türkiye’s intense and successful struggle against terrorism. Türkiye’s success in the fight against terrorism domestically and beyond its borders forced the terrorist organization to rethink its military and political strategies. Türkiye’s effective counterterrorism strategy has largely restricted the operational capabilities and activities of the PKK.
All these successes were direct results of the changed security doctrine and the success in the defense industry. Türkiye has adopted a new security doctrine after the failed coup attempt in 2016 and began to implement a preventive strategy in its fight against terrorism, taking necessary measures beyond its borders. Especially after the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ) members were expelled from the security institutions, Türkiye began to follow a much more effective security strategy in its struggle against terrorism.
The second domestic factor is the further normalization in Turkish domestic politics and the new political context in the country. The AK Party government, under the leadership of President Erdoğan, ended the denial policies of the previous governments and took many revolutionary steps regarding rights and freedoms, expanding the ground of politics in the country. Not only ethnic groups but also religious and sectarian groups benefited from the new political context.
The AK Party government has created a new social environment in the country, in which all segments of society have enjoyed basic rights and freedoms by ending the discriminatory and ideological policies. Prioritizing the service to society and the economic development of the AK Party has greatly transformed the country. The AK Party, which heavily invested in infrastructure all over the country, ended the unstable development between regions.
The third domestic factor is the personality and strong political leadership of Erdoğan. He changed the paradigm in the domestic political setting. His determined political will and crisis-solving, despite many risks throughout the process, paved the way for the initiation of the required process for the terror-free Türkiye project. Without the long-lasting political stability provided under the leadership of Erdoğan, the process would not be successful. Only his leadership could develop effective political approaches that solve the country’s long-term political problems.
Another domestic problem has been the changing context of the Kurdish people. On the one hand, the Diyarbakır Mothers have been conducting a sit-in protest for their children, who have been abducted by the PKK, outside of the office of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) since 2019. They have been a great source of morale in the region and offer courage for the people to oppose terrorism and the use of violence. On the other hand, the PKK has been considered an obstacle to the democratization of Kurdish politics. Neither the pro-PKK political parties nor the independent political parties could freely carry out politics due to the threat of the use of violence against any opposition. The PKK-affiliated political actors, namely the HDP and its successor, the Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party), failed to act as Türkiye’s national parties.
The fifth domestic factor has been the support of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) under the leadership of Devlet Bahçeli. The MHP leader, who has been making a strategic calculation for a long time, triggered the latest process at the beginning of last October. Bahçeli unexpectedly started a rapprochement with the DEM Party. The support of the MHP and its leader provided further justification for the process. The MHP and its leader, Bahçeli, who set aside possible political costs, have followed harmonious policies within the People’s Alliance.
The sixth domestic factor is the conjuncture of Turkish politics after the failed coup attempt in 2016. After the restructuring of the Turkish security institutions, including the Turkish Armed Forces, the gendarmerie, the police and the intelligence, coordination and adaptability were established between state institutions. There has been a high level of coordination and cooperation between security institutions and political authorities. Thus, the state has become much more effective in its fight against terrorism. Furthermore, Türkiye has greatly benefited from the past experiences in searching for solutions. The government was very careful not to allow the repetition of past mistakes. The whole process was carried out with great privacy.
Regional factors
There are significant regional developments that contributed to the dissolution of the PKK. The most important regional factor is the new regional context, which largely emerged with the ongoing Gaza genocide committed by Israel and the regional expansionism of the Zionist state. The persistent and effective Palestinian resistance has changed the regional balance of power.
One of the byproducts of the Gaza genocide and the Israeli attacks against the regional actors was the fall of the Baath regime in Syria on Dec. 8, 2024. With the collapse of the regime in Syria, which had been supporting the PKK since the late 1970s, the PKK has lost its main protector in the Middle East. Considering the increasing rapprochement between Türkiye and the current Iraqi government, no country in the region, except Israel, is willing to support the PKK. It is clear that the Israeli capability to influence the PKK is quite limited.
The second regional factor that negatively affected the PKK is the collapse of the Iranian regional axis, which was largely destroyed by Israel. Due to the many internal and external dynamics, the current Iranian government is quite vulnerable. The Iranian government, which has begun to follow a defensive policy, cannot initiate disruptive processes against a regional power such as Türkiye.
The third regional factor that contributed to the terror-free process is the rise of Türkiye as a regional power, especially after the Syrian revolution. The country has emerged as a deterrent military and political power in the region. As it improved its capabilities, Türkiye has begun to provide vital support to other regional governments, namely Syria and Iraq, in their struggle against terrorism. Türkiye has been successfully cooperating with these states to clear the region of terrorism. Both Iraq and Syria work together with Türkiye in neutralizing the PKK in the region.
The last, but not least, external factor that contributed to the process is the new global context. The latest developments in the global conjuncture have paved the way for the return of nation-states and weakened the influence of violent non-state actors.
In short, the PKK’s decision to dissolve itself and to lay down arms is a turning point for Türkiye to overcome its most prolonged domestic problem, which has been terrorism. From now on, some important steps will be taken within the legal framework for the completion of the road map for a terror-free Türkiye. The Grand National Assembly of Türkiye (TBMM), representing different segments of society, will be the main platform to discuss all issues. We have to watch the process carefully, but by relying on state institutions. Without the support of the public, it will be quite difficult to successfully end the process. In case of high-level internal and external interventions and manipulations, we should be careful not to allow the hijacking of the terror-free Türkiye process. Therefore, all sides should be careful in the management of the process and take decisive steps for the resolution of the problem.