In the contemporary geopolitical landscape, the U.S.-China rivalry is shaping global power dynamics through trade wars, technology races and military tensions. Amid this great power struggle, Germany and Russia emerged as unexpected “spoilsports.” While not direct protagonists, their distinct policies complicate the rivalry. Germany’s cautious balancing act aims to maintain economic ties with China while upholding trans-Atlantic commitments, frustrating Washington. Meanwhile, Russia’s disruptive actions, particularly its aggression in Ukraine, destabilize global stability, challenging both U.S. and Chinese strategies. Both nations assert their sovereignty in ways that create strategic dilemmas for the two superpowers.
The reluctant spoilsport
Germany, a key player in Europe and the global liberal order finds itself in a difficult position as the U.S.-China rivalry escalates. Its deep economic ties with China – Germany’s largest trading partner in industries like automotive, chemicals and machinery – complicate Berlin’s ability to adopt the tough anti-China stance the U.S. has been urging. Major German firms such as Volkswagen, Siemens and BMW are heavily invested in the Chinese market, making a complete economic break with China highly risky.
However, Germany’s reluctance to fully align with Washington is not purely economic. Berlin has increasingly pushed for greater European “strategic autonomy,” aiming to reduce dependence on the U.S. and forge a more independent foreign policy. This approach, which emphasizes “de-risking” from China by diversifying economic ties rather than full “decoupling,” has frustrated Washington, which seeks a more confrontational stance against Beijing.
Germany’s pragmatism has also caused tension within the European Union. While French President Emmanuel Macron has championed a more assertive European position on China, Germany has been cautious, wary of the potential economic fallout from a hardline approach. This reluctance has led to divisions within the EU, where some member states push for a stronger stand against China. Germany’s careful balancing act – protecting economic interests while maintaining transatlantic ties – has made it a reluctant spoilsport, frustrating both the U.S. and some European allies.
In addition to divisions within EU politics, Germany is grappling with internal challenges stemming from conflicting interests within the Western bloc. While the U.S. imposes restrictive policies on German companies domestically, it simultaneously pressures Germany to align with its overarching strategy against China. This dual pressure weakens Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s position, as he already faces a domestic political crisis exacerbated by structural economic problems lingering since the COVID-19 pandemic. Germany’s ambivalent stance amplifies its “spoilsport” image during a period when great powers are fiercely consolidating their trenches in a turbulent global landscape.
The disruptive spoilsport
Russia, under President Vladimir Putin, has emerged as a disruptive force in the U.S.-China rivalry, injecting instability into the global order. Its aggressive foreign policy, especially the invasion of Ukraine, has isolated Moscow from the West and driven it closer to China. This growing partnership in energy and military cooperation is often seen as a potential counterweight to U.S. influence. However, Russia’s actions frequently complicate China’s strategic goals, especially when it comes to maintaining global stability, which is crucial for China’s economic interests.
China, while critical of the West, benefits from stability and is wary of the chaos Russia’s aggression creates. For example, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its broader ambitions in the post-Soviet space introduce volatility in regions critical to China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI). While Beijing publicly supports Moscow, it privately worries about the long-term impact of Russia’s destabilizing actions, which provoke stronger Western sanctions and military responses.
Moreover, Russia’s nationalist, anti-Western tactics – such as cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns – are far more destabilizing than China’s more strategic, economic competition. This difference creates an uneasy alliance, with Russia often acting as a disruptive spoilsport even for China. Additionally, Europe’s reliance on Russian natural gas has divided the West’s response to both Russia’s actions and broader global challenges, further complicating the balance of power in the U.S.-China rivalry. Despite efforts to reduce energy dependence, Russia’s aggressive moves continue to ripple through the geopolitical landscape.
Frustrating both superpowers
Both Germany and Russia act as spoilers in the U.S.-China rivalry by refusing to play by the rules set by either Washington or Beijing. Germany’s insistence on maintaining economic ties with China while balancing its trans-Atlantic commitments has frustrated the U.S., which is seeking a more unified front against Chinese influence. At the same time, Russia’s unpredictable and often destabilizing behavior complicates China’s broader strategic goals, even as Moscow draws closer to Beijing.
For Washington, Germany’s reluctance to fully commit to an anti-China alliance limits the effectiveness of its broader strategy in Europe. The U.S. would prefer a united front, but Germany’s emphasis on strategic autonomy and economic pragmatism prevents such cohesion. This not only weakens the trans-Atlantic alliance but also hinders efforts to present a unified Western response to China’s rise.
For Beijing, Russia’s disruptive actions complicate its ambitions for global leadership. China wants to project stability and reliability as it positions itself as an alternative to U.S. hegemony. Yet Russia’s aggressive policies in Ukraine and its willingness to challenge international norms create global instability, which risks undermining China’s carefully crafted image as a responsible global actor.
Adding to the complexities of this relationship, Donald Trump’s presidency could further strain Sino-Russian ties. As part of its grand strategy, China seeks to exploit gaps in the global landscape, challenging the Western bloc’s ability to maneuver and make strategic choices. Should the United States extend an olive branch to Vladimir Putin’s Russia, the situation could resemble the dynamics of the Cold War, albeit with a shift in roles – this time replacing Communist China with Putin’s Russia as the key actor.
A new world order
In the era of great power rivalry, Germany and Russia stand out as pivotal “spoilsports,” each shaping the global order in distinct ways. Germany’s careful balancing act between the United States and China – driven by economic pragmatism and a push for European strategic autonomy – undermines Washington’s efforts to form a cohesive anti-China alliance. Simultaneously, Russia’s disruptive actions, from military aggression to nationalist strategies, inject instability into key regions, complicating China’s rise and challenging its long-term global ambitions.
As the U.S.-China rivalry intensifies, both Germany and Russia exemplify the complex dynamics of a multipolar world where mid-sized powers wield significant influence over the strategies of dominant nations. For Washington, Germany’s reluctance to fully align with its anti-China stance weakens trans-Atlantic cohesion. For Beijing, Russia’s unpredictable and destabilizing behavior risks undermining its aspirations to project stability and leadership on the global stage.
Looking ahead, it would not be surprising to see Russia assert itself further as a global power, leveraging its disruptive tendencies to reshape international norms. Similarly, Germany may seek to transcend its role as a regional power, strengthening its influence through strategic autonomy and economic clout. For both Washington and Beijing, effectively managing the roles of these two actors will be crucial to navigating the next phase of great power competition.