The 6.2 magnitude earthquake, centered in the Marmara Sea off the coast of Silivri, Istanbul, on April 23, has stirred discussions about both the current and future earthquake risks in the region.
While some experts suggest that this tremor may signal the end of major earthquake threats for the area, others caution that a much more powerful quake could be lurking just beneath the surface, ready to strike at any moment. With the region sitting on one of the world’s most active fault lines, the contrasting opinions highlight the complexity and unpredictability of earthquake forecasting.
As experts present conflicting views on the current state of seismic activity, the message remains urgent: The region’s vulnerability to a catastrophic earthquake is far from resolved. Here’s a closer look at the expert opinions shaping the future of earthquake preparedness and risk management in the Marmara region.
Professor Naci Görür, a leading expert in seismology, explained that while the recent earthquake was significant, it does not represent the feared major quake in the Marmara region. He emphasized that these smaller tremors, which occur regularly along the Kumburgaz Fault, help to relieve stress but are not the “big one” that experts are concerned about.
“These quakes are not the big one we fear; they increase the stress on the fault, forcing it closer to breaking,” said Görür.
He stressed that the key to minimizing damage in the event of a major earthquake is proactive preparation.
“Earthquake preparation must be a collective effort from the government, municipalities and citizens. Building new structures and urban transformation are not enough; we need a city that can resist earthquakes,” he added.
Professor Hasan Sözbilir, another expert, commented on the behavior of the fault and said that the partial rupture of the fault during the recent earthquake could be seen as a positive sign. He stated that the rupture was limited to a smaller portion of the fault. “If the entire fault had ruptured, we could have seen a quake with a magnitude of 7.4 to 7.5. This partial rupture is actually a good thing, as it reduces the overall risk,” Sözbilir noted, expressing relief that the region avoided a potentially much stronger earthquake.
Meanwhile, professor Şener Üşümezsoy offered reassurance, claiming that significant seismic activity in the region has already been accounted for, with the last major earthquake in the Marmara occurring in 1894.
“There is no further earthquake risk in Marmara,” he declared.
Üşümezsoy explained that the part of the fault that had ruptured recently had not yet broken but added that there are no more earthquake risks for the region.
“The fault that caused the 1999 Izmit earthquake is not related to the recent event. The stress from that event has already been relieved,” he said, dismissing fears of another major earthquake in the area.
Professor Ziyadin Çakır pointed out that the earthquake’s location, approximately 70 kilometers (43 miles) from Istanbul, likely contributed to its relatively mild impact in the city. “The earthquake originated from the Marmara Ereğlisi region, extending up to the Bosporus. While it might have advanced the timeline for a larger earthquake, the distance from Istanbul helped reduce the intensity of shaking,” Çakır explained.
He also cautioned that aftershocks could still occur and urged people to be cautious, particularly in buildings that may have sustained damage during the main earthquake.
Professor Ahmet Övgün Ercan, commenting on the dynamics of the earthquake, suggested that the rupture in the Trakya region of the Northern Marmara fault zone was beneficial.
“The rupture didn’t reach the Istanbul area, and the quake jumped to the western side of the fault. This is a positive outcome in terms of safety,” Ercan said, noting that the stress released by the earthquake was only a fraction of what would be needed for a larger quake.
Despite these reassurances, professor Okan Tüysüz remained cautious about the region’s seismic potential. He pointed out that there is still a significant potential for a magnitude 7 or higher earthquake in the Marmara.
“The fault in the Marmara Sea can produce a major earthquake, and this risk remains,” Tüysüz said, highlighting the need for continued vigilance.
Professor Şükrü Ersoy, too, emphasized the importance of being prepared for larger quakes, noting that even minor earthquakes, like the recent one, could cause damage. “Even a 6.2 magnitude earthquake can cause harm, and we must be ready for the larger ones,” Ersoy warned.
As the scientific community continues to analyze the event, authorities are urging citizens to take necessary precautions, including avoiding entry into damaged buildings. Experts are also calling for more efforts to strengthen urban infrastructure and ensure that cities, especially Istanbul, are better prepared for future seismic events. The message is clear: Proactive measures now can save lives in the event of a major earthquake.