A new study employing artificial intelligence to predict traffic accident delay times found that Istanbul recorded 97,354 traffic accidents in 2024, resulting in an estimated annual loss of 105 hours due to congestion.
According to international research firms, Istanbul ranks first in traffic congestion levels across Europe and 35th worldwide, with congestion measured at 41%.
As traffic jams worsen in the sprawling metropolis, academics are turning to data-driven solutions and AI to address the problem.
Dr. Hüseyin Korkmaz, a faculty member at Istanbul University’s Transportation and Logistics Department, conducted the research as part of his doctoral thesis. His study analyzed official data from the Turkish National Police Traffic Department and developed a predictive model estimating how long accidents contribute to traffic delays.
Between 2013 and 2021, Istanbul experienced 147,626 accidents, with 99,512 causing traffic congestion lasting up to 30 minutes and 1,751 lasting up to 90 minutes. The years 2018 and 2021 saw the highest number of crashes, with the Zeytinburnu district reporting the most incidents during that period.
Fridays proved to be the busiest days for accidents, predominantly involving cars, followed by motorcycles and small trucks. Most collisions involved two vehicles.
Korkmaz, who is Türkiye’s first academic to earn a doctorate in “intelligent transportation systems,” said the data set included about 2,000 accidents after cleaning and analysis. He noted that accidents primarily occur during peak commute hours between 5 a.m. and 8:30 a.m., and 6 p.m. to 9 p.m., especially on main routes like the D-100 highway, TEM motorway, and coastal roads.
He explained that although vehicle speeds are low during rush hour, driver inattention increases minor accidents. “Traffic becomes tedious, leading to fatigue, stress and distraction,” Korkmaz said. “While this doesn’t cause major crashes, it results in smaller collisions that halt traffic.”
The study found that closing a single lane due to an accident adds at least 10 minutes of waiting time. Minor accidents involving motorcycles caused 20 to 30 minutes of congestion, while crashes involving two vehicles or small trucks could delay traffic for up to 1.5 hours.
“Drivers already frustrated by congestion can’t tolerate a 40-minute trip to a destination normally 10 kilometers away,” Korkmaz added. “Even a one-minute delay negatively affects people.”
On solutions, Korkmaz said traffic congestion will not improve unless population inflows to Istanbul are controlled and job opportunities are distributed more evenly across the country. “Building wider roads provides only short-term relief; after a few years, those roads become congested too,” he said.
Korkmaz also noted that the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IBB) plans to introduce tolls for private vehicles entering congested areas such as Kadıköy and Eminönü. “To make such policies effective, public transportation must be improved,” he said. “If people cannot rely on buses or metros, banning cars won’t help. Many locals and tourists already use public transit, and making it more attractive could reduce private vehicle use.”
Regarding parking issues, Korkmaz highlighted narrow streets with double-parked cars restricting movement. He noted the city’s urban layout is skewed southward, but future expansion toward the north, especially around the new airport, may ease some pressure. “In areas like Bağcılar and Küçükçekmece, traffic flow is severely limited due to parked cars on both sides of the street,” he said, suggesting new urban planning may be necessary.