Recent events globally have unfolded at a breathtaking speed. After nearly 14 years of conflict in Syria, it is remarkable that within a single week, the opposition managed to dismantle a long-lasting dictatorship and restore peace and stability in the majority of the country. This week, regime change in Syria dominated the global agenda, marking a pivotal moment in the Middle East geopolitics. The opposition achieved legitimacy and drastically shifted the balance of power, making the previous rulers and their allies increasingly illegitimate.
A decade ago, during the Geneva peace process, Russia, Iran and the regime of Bashar Assad were regarded as the legitimate representatives of Syria. However, their treatment of the Syrian people, marked by actions akin to those of occupiers, has eroded their standing. Today, the Assad regime, along with Russia and Iran, has shifted from a position of legitimacy to one of profound illegitimacy.
The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Syrian National Army (SNA), once regarded with suspicion, have unexpectedly emerged as the most legitimate actors in the region. In contrast, Türkiye, despite its active role, appears to be positioned as a more peripheral element in the evolving regional dynamics. Legitimacy is a valuable quality for the future of societies and states. I think all nations of the world should learn lessons from the behavior of Iran, Russia and the Assad regime in Syria.
Illegitimate elements
In fact, Russia initially played a more rational role in Syria. However, the involvement of Iran in radicalizing Shiite militias and Hezbollah, pushing them into a position of anger and violence reminiscent of Daesh, effectively poisoned the stance of Russia within the climate shaped by the Assad regime. The actions of Iran have arguably pushed Russia into a position where it perceives all Sunnis as terrorists and views a broad swath of the population as adversaries. Russia will likely reconsider its alliance with Iran and be more cautious in its affinity next time.
On the other hand, Trump, believing that it is useless to invest trillions of dollars in the Middle East without any tangible returns, as seen in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, declared that “the Syrian issue belongs to the Syrians” and that the United States would not intervene further. He emphasized his intention to shift focus toward securing peace in the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
The Damascus regime has collapsed and lost its legitimacy, while the PKK terrorist organization and its Syrian wing YPG have increasingly come to resemble the Assad regime in their actions and approach. As a result, they will also gradually lose their foothold over time.
Israel’s occupation and immoral policies, along with its disregard for international law, have compounded its aggression toward Syria, particularly at a time when the Syrian people were uniting to secure their future, change the regime and build a new state. In fact, the issue of illegitimacy, previously applicable to Russia, Iran and the Assad regime, will soon extend to Israel as well. Just as Assad oppressed his own people, with Iran supporting him through terrorist organizations, leading to their loss of legitimacy, Israel, as a state, has over the past year adopted policies that impudently violate international law, the laws of war, fundamental human rights, including to access essential food. In doing so, Israel has fallen into an illegitimate position both in the West Bank and Gaza. As if all this illegality and aggression were not enough, Israel directly violated Syria’s borders and launched attacks while the Syrian state was in the process of formation. A country’s defense industry plays a crucial role in shaping its future, yet Israel launched unlawful attacks on the defense industry and technology of Syria, aiming to cripple its economy.
Friends and foes
Every nation faces difficult times, and in such moments, some countries offer support, helping others through challenges. In contrast, some nations betray and occupy, exploiting vulnerable periods of transition for their own gain. It remains unclear, for now, which countries will align with the new Syrian government and which will oppose it. However, the new government and the Syrian people are unlikely to hold any significant sympathy for Iran, particularly in light of the actions that it conducted in Syria.
Meanwhile, Israel’s behavior has been deeply concerning. Besides consistently disregarding international law in Gaza and ignoring United Nations resolutions, Netanyahu has manipulated Biden and the U.S., playing them like a cat does with a mouse. Every time the U.S. takes steps toward peace, Netanyahu escalates the situation – whether by bombing hospitals, attacking places of worship or initiating military invasions.
Enemies forever
This war will eventually come to an end, and a state will be established in Syria. Just as Israel has made enemies of nations worldwide, its invasion of Syria has made 30 million Syrians its enemies for eternity. While Syria may not be the wealthiest state in the Arab world, it stands out for its profound historical legacy. Aleppo has a 5,000-year history, and Damascus, with its 10,000 years, was also the capital of the Umayyad Caliphate, one of the most significant states in history. Syria is the cultural and historical homeland of all Arabs, and Syrians have been pioneers in education and intellectualism across the Arab world.
By attempting to occupy Syria, Israel is effectively declaring to the world, “Muslims and Arabs should hate and oppose us until the end of time.” It is hard to imagine a more significant self-destructive impact on a nation’s future and on the Jewish people than the course of actions taken by Israel in this conflict.