Tensions are high in the Middle East, beginning with Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, which was fueled by decades-long Israeli occupation and persecution. Since then, Israel has flattened Gaza, killed Palestinians in the occupied West Bank where there is no Hamas, killed all leaders of Hezbollah, pacified the group in Lebanon, regularly bombed Syria and conducted assassinations inside Iran.
Some may still think Israel is in a defensive position, but it is not. They may also assert that Israel can now relieve itself of its actions, but it will not. As it is clearer than ever, Israel is not the victim, but the source of the problem, and its actions show that it will continue to be the troublemaker as it enjoys endless U.S. support and Europe’s as well as the Arab street’s silence.
Hamas and Hezbollah are not in a position to fight Israel, while Syria is going through a revolution. Iran also seems to be avoiding a clash with Israel after the failure of its anti-Israeli stance, which has turned into nothing more than noisy rhetoric. However, Israel continues to massacre Palestinians, bomb Lebanon, now occupy southern Syria and destroy remnants of the Assad regime’s weapons, despite the new Syrian government declaring that it does not want to fight Israel.
Whether Syrians are hesitant to fight Israel or not, the latter does not feel the need to hold back from bombing surrounding countries at night. Israel seems intent on destroying its neighbors, who occupy their promised lands, and moving into their territories bit by bit, as it is currently doing in Syria. After its cruelty in Gaza, which has killed more than 45,000 people so far, another reason might be that a significant majority of Israelis have no mercy for Gentiles (non-Jews).
In such circumstances, what can be expected next? First of all, as mentioned above, Israel is not safer than before. Despite armed groups like Hezbollah and Hamas being paralyzed, Israel now has a new enemy: Syria, due to its occupation of southern Syria. The new Syria will avoid warring with Israel for now, but as soon as it heals its wounds, it will demand its occupied lands. A war may not be likely, but if forced to fight, Syria will do so and perform better than the armed groups. Even if Israel manages to occupy Syria, it will not remain there, as the country is too large to control, and the Syrian army will cause heavy losses to the Israeli military.
On the other hand, Türkiye has no apparent reason to clash with Israel, but Israel’s atrocities are unbearable to both the Turkish people and the government. Moreover, Israel’s expansionist policies and its likely support for the YPG, a PKK offshoot in Syria, are alarming Ankara. The Turkish government sees the PKK and its affiliates as an existential threat to itself and listens to no one when it comes to fighting PKK terrorism. Thus, Israel’s direct or indirect support for the YPG, whether through America or otherwise, will make it an enemy of Türkiye. If Israel crosses Türkiye’s red line, either in Syria or elsewhere, Türkiye will likely take a war stance.
It is almost certain that Türkiye will not go to war with Israel on behalf of someone else. However, a direct attack on Turkish troops (particularly the killing of soldiers) or involvement in Türkiye’s fight against terrorism by supporting terrorist organizations will make war inevitable. If such possibilities seem imminent, the Turkish state will not hesitate to go to war.
In sum, if Israel’s arrogance leads its politicians to underestimate Türkiye’s power and influence in the region, a war between the two countries is likely. There is an apparent Israeli bravado in the region, which makes the state think it can target any country. This piece argues that this is not the case, as Israel has not yet faced (and there is no need for it to face) the biggest power in the region. One may point to Israel’s arsenals, including nuclear weapons, but no one knows what Türkiye has in its military depots. However, what is decisive in wars is not weapons but the strategic mind of armies and their readiness to die for their honor and homeland.
Let’s hope that there will be no more wars but peace in the region and that every state will know its boundaries.