Two contrasting White House scenes in February can be used to better understand U.S. President Donald Trump’s style of doing business with world leaders and what lies ahead for the U.S.-India relationship, which the previous Joe Biden administration considered “one of the most consequential in the world.”
Trump’s shouty meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, on Feb. 28 vividly showed the U.S. leader’s bossy transactional nature.
“You don’t have the cards right now. With us, you start having cards,” Trump said, laying out some of his terms for American help in ending the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
Despite being scolded by Trump and Vice President JD Vance, the Ukrainian president not only stood his ground but delivered sharp retorts in English. Militarily, he might be struggling, but Zelenskyy was not isolated, as Europe’s outpouring of support for Ukraine showed soon after the White House fiasco.
On the contrary, when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi traveled to the U.S. two weeks earlier, his meeting with Trump and media interaction were notably dull.
U.S. plans regarding India
India may not be in a hot war like Ukraine, but it does have geopolitical fights, for example, in the Asia-Pacific region, where both the U.S. and India, as Quad members along with Japan and Australia, seek to limit China’s clout. This makes India’s relationship with the U.S. of critical importance. However, India would be disadvantaged if it indulged in trade fights with the U.S. In Trump’s language, it will come down to who holds what cards.
The Modi-Trump meeting went reasonably well, except for slight awkwardness due to the Indian prime minister not enjoying the Zelenskyy level of proficiency in English. At one point, Trump stepped in to respond to a media question addressed to Modi as the visiting leader appeared hesitant to field it.
Secondly, Modi is often most amiable on his foreign visits while focusing on the agenda carefully crafted by his advisors and the foreign service bureaucracy. In that sense, the public impression of Modi’s business-like encounter with Trump did not convey the true nature of the behind-the-scenes maneuvers and differences over the trade, tariff and migration issues.
Much is made of Modi-Trump bonhomie, which was ostentatious during Trump’s first term but is overshadowed by the rhetoric emanating from Trump’s “Make America Great Again (MAGA)” plank. Trump and his radical MAGA operators are not going to be bogged down in diplomatic niceties when it doesn’t serve their goals. This is a hurdle neither Modi nor his advisors may find easy to overcome. Trump will seek tough concessions and India may concede because the odds in their otherwise multifaceted and strong relationship are stacked against Modi. Trump can afford to go gung-ho as he doesn’t have to seek re-election, unlike Modi, who may want to stay in power beyond his current five-year term ending in 2029.
Deportation blow to Hindutva
The success of Modi’s right-wing Hindutva agenda hinges on two crucial factors: seeking foreign cooperation to his advantage and managing the economy without causing public discontent. Maintaining a nationalistic image is crucial for him, but there is an early setback on this front because of Trump’s deportation flights.
The recent return of deportees, shackled on the U.S. military planes transporting them, did not help Modi’s strongman image as opposition critics seized on the plight of the returning Indians to mock the talked-about Modi-Trump friendship. A significant number of the returnees had origins in Modi’s home state of Gujarat.
Some 4.8 million people of Indian descent live in the U.S., of whom 34% are U.S.-born. Authorities in the U.S. have reportedly identified for deportation about 20,000 out of an estimated 750,000 illegal Indian residents. India is the third-largest source of illegal immigrants in the U.S. after Mexico and El Salvador. Besides, the U.S. remains a top destination for Indian professionals, who received 72.3% of all H-1B visas issued between October 2022 and September 2023.
The migration issue is delicate for the Modi government and the Trump administration is surely aware of the leverage the U.S. enjoys. While Trump will not confront India with the “you-do-not-have-the-cards” nostril-flaring talk, his administration knows its strengths.
Tariff king reevaluates BRICS
Trump’s tariff problem with India is an old one. In his first term, Trump called India a “tariff king” and pushed Modi to bring down tariffs on American goods as he upped global trade tensions.
While China, the EU and Canada are not shy about fighting it out with the Trump administration, India lacks the appetite or willingness to enter into a public spat with the U.S. either on tariffs or on any other issue. Modi, in a recent three-hour conversation with an American podcaster, spoke in oleaginous and flattering terms about Trump and their rapport. India is already showing signs of placating the U.S. with tariff reductions and doing away with non-tariff barriers, according to reports.
The U.S. had a goods trade deficit of $45.6 billion with India last year. Their total trade in 2023 was $190 billion, including $66.1 billion worth of trade in services. The two countries are discussing a “multi-sector bilateral trade agreement (BTA)” that can avert the kind of trade tensions the U.S. is experiencing with its North American neighbors, the EU and China.
India, as part of the BRICS group, which includes China, Russia, Brazil and other significant economies, has in recent years sought to reduce its dependence on the U.S. dollar in bilateral trade with several countries. The Modi government, seeking a bigger profile globally, has sought to promote the Indian rupee’s use abroad.
However, Trump in February made direct tariff threats against BRICS members “if they want to play games” with the U.S. currency. Weeks later, India made its position categorically clear that it had “absolutely no interest in undermining the dollar at all” and described the U.S. currency as a “source of international economic stability.” Those words can be easily seen as India’s capitulation on a vital issue, as Trump only spoke menacing words rather than making direct demands.
Trump’s uniquely reckless methods of putting pressure on countries were on full display in his fractious exchange with the Ukrainian president. Zelenskyy knew he had the backing of influential EU members when he refused to surrender to Trump and Vance. Does India have strong allies to counter U.S. demands? The cards are stacked against India because it would not risk losing the benefits it enjoys in maintaining a stable relationship with the U.S.