The start of the political crisis in France was marked by the European Parliament elections in June 2024. After the National Rally (RN) led by Marine Le Pen became the first party with 31.37% of the vote, French President Emmanuel Macron decided to call early general elections. On July 7, in the second round of parliamentary elections, the left-wing alliance New Popular Front (NFP) won 182 seats, Macron’s coalition 168, and the far-right Le Pen’s RN party 143. The new parliamentary landscape set the stage for an ongoing government crisis. After two months of deadlock, Michel Barnier, leader of the party with 6% representation, was appointed prime minister. The main objective of Barnier’s government was to reduce France’s public deficit from 6.1% to 5% in the new year and to comply with the European Union’s budgetary criteria. However, the austerity budget proposed by the government to achieve this goal sparked strong reactions in the French Parliament, and the government’s first major test came during the budget negotiations.
The recent elections and the ensuing crisis in France have ushered in a period unlike any the country has ever experienced in its history. How did France go from having great hopes and dreams when it brought Macron to power to experiencing such disappointment in just seven years? What is the sign of a serious political divide, and more importantly, the weakening, or even cessation, of dialogue? Unsolvable and growing economic problems have resulted in unhappy and angry masses… France is facing dark, uncertain, and, above all, hopeless times.
The weight of the country’s economic problems has been growing year after year and as a result, the streets are heating up again. This will not be the first time that the French have taken to the streets in swift and effective protests. However, there seems to be less division among the people than among politicians. Those who do not fight for poverty, deprivation and the welfare of the people – those who only seek power or escape from it – do not listen to the people’s voice and therefore fail to offer solutions.
The only solution seems to be a government that is not fragile, with clear principles, goals, methods and a timetable that focuses on the economy. Unfortunately, the political spectrum does not seem capable of producing this. It would not be wrong to assess that Macron, whose rise was once full of hope, will also be remembered as the one who caused frustration. In the end, will the hope he inspired or the frustration he caused remain in people’s minds?
The fall of the Barnier government created the current crisis. The reason for this crisis was Michel Barnier’s attempt to bypass a parliamentary vote and pass the budget by invoking Article 49.3 of the constitution, often seen as anti-democratic. This maneuver faced backlash from both the left and the right opposition, leading to a no-confidence motion. In the end, 331 out of 577 deputies in the National Assembly voted no confidence, bringing down the government. Thus, Barnier’s government became the shortest-lived government in French history, staying in office for only 90 days.
Following this new situation, Socialist Party (PS) leader Olivier Faure blamed Macron for refusing to appoint a prime minister from the left. The NFP, of which the PS is a member, unexpectedly won the most seats in July but failed to secure a majority.
Marine Le Pen, who believes that these developments will pave the way for the far-right to come to power in France, emphasized the far-right’s growing strength by saying, “Our victory has only been postponed” after the second-round elections. Jordan Bardella, the 29-year-old leader of the RN, stated that Macron was to blame for engineering the so-called “Republican Front,” which “deprived” him of a majority in the snap elections and thus the prime ministership.
The reasons behind this unprecedented and unresolved situation in France are still being debated. Some argue that these developments stem from France’s failure to face economic reality. For years, governments have increased public spending, leading to a rise in debt and budget deficits. At this point, the government has no choice but to pursue austerity policies, which the French people find unacceptable. Some argue that this crisis could help trigger many of the reforms France needs to recover.
The current crisis has also sparked a constitutional debate. It is clear that the Gaullist Republic is deeply ingrained in France’s identity. However, French constitutionalists are not describing this as an institutional crisis. The political parties have created a culture of opposition that often manifests in violent political actions. The combative nature of the opposition, including efforts to overthrow the government and put pressure on it, rather than work together, is unhealthy for any regime. The assembly shows no tolerance for the doctrine of the relative majority, which emphasizes the need for compromise and the search for alliances.
The political crisis in France cannot be confined to the country. This incompetence in France – one of the two main engines of the EU alongside Germany – is naturally damaging its external reputation and fostering distrust. France is rapidly losing the ability to assert its power and influence on the world stage. A new prime minister will undoubtedly need to be chosen quickly. But will the tenure of this new prime minister be any longer than that of their predecessor? Will the record for the shortest tenure of a prime minister be broken?
Under the constitution, Macron cannot call new legislative elections until next July. Any new government will therefore need to include more than one party. At this stage, Macron could also appoint a government of unelected technocrats.
The political spectrum in France is characterized by parties that do not offer hope from the left to the right, the absence of leaders who can unite the people, and the failure to create and implement decisive policies with the people behind them. Unfortunately, there are many problems in France for which solutions are unknown and cannot be delivered in the short term. Given the current political situation, the first priority is the rapid formation of a strong and decisive government. Macron must take action to change the situation in the country. In the French political system, the president must rise to this challenge. The new government will need time, but this is not impossible. However, it will need to secure a majority, and the outlook is not promising.
A parliament where fighting is the norm and no solutions are found. In short, the dark and gloomy days in France continue, with no light at the end of the tunnel. But will everything be solved, and life return to a sunnier state, once a new name arrives in Matignon? More precisely, is stability and balance possible without Macron’s departure?