Germany is heading for early elections on Feb. 23, 2025, a pivotal moment that will shape the country’s political and economic future. The latest polling figures reveal a dramatic shift in Germany’s political landscape. According to the INSA poll released on Jan. 6, 2025, the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) maintains a leading position with 31% support, while the Social Democratic Party (SPD) lags far behind at 15.5%. Meanwhile, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has surged to an impressive 21.5%, closing in on the second-place position and overtaking the SPD. The Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne) hold steady at 13.5%, while the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Left Party (Die Linke) hover at 4%, dangerously close to falling below the parliamentary threshold.
These figures underscore a striking rightward shift in Germany’s political balance. Centre-left parties are struggling to adapt to this new reality. For the first time, the combined vote share of the CDU/CSU and AfD could surpass 50% – a historic milestone. Since the AfD’s first participation in federal elections in 2013, the combined results of the CDU/CSU and AfD have steadily risen: 47.8% in 2013, 37.9% in 2017, and 32.8% in 2021. This trend not only highlights the AfD’s growing success but also reflects the erosion of trust in traditional centrist parties among German voters.
With all major parties refusing to enter a coalition with the AfD, potential government coalitions appear limited. The options include a Grand Coalition (CDU/CSU and SPD), a Black-Green Coalition (CDU/CSU and the Greens), a Kenya Coalition (CDU/CSU, Greens, and SPD), or a Blackberry Coalition (CDU/CSU, SPD, and BSW). However, each of these scenarios carries significant social and political challenges, leaving Germany at a critical juncture.
Role of social media
One of the most contentious factors complicating the upcoming German election is the influence of social media platforms and populist rhetoric. Elon Musk’s comments on the election serve as a striking example of this impact. Musk publicly endorsed the far-right AfD as the “only party that can save Germany” and went on to label Chancellor Olaf Scholz as “stupid.” Not stopping there, he further inflamed tensions by describing President Frank-Walter Steinmeier as an “anti-democratic tyrant.”
In his New Year’s address, Chancellor Scholz responded with a pointed warning about the impact of social media on the democratic process, stating, “Only German citizens can decide Germany’s future.” This remark highlights the growing concern over social media’s power to shape public perception and the potential for manipulation during critical elections.
The spread of populist rhetoric and misinformation via social media poses a significant threat to voter behavior, undermining informed decision-making and potentially destabilizing democratic processes. Germany’s ability to navigate this challenge will depend on voters making conscious, well-informed choices and resisting the sway of manipulative narratives. This election will not only test the resilience of Germany’s democracy but also its capacity to maintain social cohesion in the face of rising populist pressures.
Magdeburg attack
The recent attack in Magdeburg has once again highlighted the alarming growth of far-right ideologies and Islamophobic rhetoric in Germany. The perpetrator’s alignment with far-right beliefs underscores how these groups exploit crises for ideological and political gain.
Ironically, the attacker’s migrant background reveals the porous nature of extremist ideologies and the pivotal role social media plays in spreading them. Far-right parties like the AfD have seized this incident as a political opportunity, framing it as evidence of failed immigration policies. This manipulation showcases how societal tensions are weaponized during election campaigns to amplify divisive narratives.
The protests that followed the attack further demonstrate the far-right’s ability to capitalize on societal unrest. Anti-immigrant slogans and instances of violence risk driving even deeper wedges within German society. This situation poses a dual threat – not only to Germany’s social harmony but also to its core democratic values. Addressing these challenges will require both a firm commitment to democratic principles and proactive measures to counter the influence of extremism.
Overlooked problem of economy
While Germany grapples with political upheaval, its most pressing issue – economic challenges – is being largely ignored. Rising living costs, uncertainty and slowing economic growth have left many citizens feeling unheard and disillusioned. The OECD recently downgraded Germany’s 2025 growth forecast from 1.1% to 0.7%, marking it as the weakest performer among developed economies. Declining industrial output and widespread layoffs are deepening the economic crisis.
One of Germany’s long-standing structural issues is its aging population and a shortage of skilled labor. The lack of a robust young workforce hampers industrial production and stifles economic growth. Short-term immigration policies have proven inadequate, merely delaying rather than solving the problem. Furthermore, major corporations like Volkswagen, Thyssenkrupp and Deutsche Bahn are planning significant layoffs, underscoring the country’s economic instability. Tens of thousands of workers face job losses, signaling a challenging future for Germany’s labor market.
This grim economic outlook highlights the urgent need for Germany to shift focus from populist debates to the real issues at hand. Policies that prioritize economic growth, enhance social welfare, and invest in infrastructure are critical for navigating the current crisis. Without such measures, Germany risks falling further behind, both economically and socially, in an increasingly competitive global landscape.
Crossroads for Germany
Germany’s Feb. 23 election is not just a vote for new political leadership; it is a defining moment that will shape the country’s future political vision. This election represents a stark choice between populist rhetoric and pragmatic policies. Voters must decide whether to support approaches that address economic challenges and foster social unity or risk deepening divisions through populist strategies.
To navigate this critical juncture, governments must prioritize policies that stimulate economic growth, reform social systems and address the genuine concerns of citizens. Instead of focusing on minority issues, solutions that embrace society as a whole should take precedence. Health care, social care and pension systems need comprehensive reform, infrastructure investments must be accelerated and economic competitiveness must be safeguarded.
This election is more than a political decision for Germany – it is a turning point for achieving social cohesion and economic stability. The path chosen by voters, coupled with leaders’ ability to deliver realistic solutions, will be pivotal in determining Germany’s trajectory for years to come.