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    Home»News Analysis»Gaza war may lead to arms race, geostrategic fractures in region
    News Analysis

    Gaza war may lead to arms race, geostrategic fractures in region

    By Turkiye ScoopJanuary 4, 20244 Mins Read
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    As Israel’s relentless attacks on Gaza continue to claim civilian lives by the day, the world and especially societies in the Middle East are losing hope in universal values and a global justice system championed by the West so far.

    Months have passed, and more than 20,000 people have lost their lives in Gaza, mostly children. However, despite the mounting number of civilian deaths and war crimes committed by Israel, neither the U.S. nor the EU have raised their voice enough to stop and condemn the attacks. Hamas’ attack on Israel can be condemned while Israel’s attack on Gaza is not deemed worthy of condemnation by the international community.

    The silence of the West is increasingly leading regional societies and their governments to question the current global system and their security, warned Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in his meeting with media representatives in Ankara.

    Countries in the region have seen that once interests are the top priority, the West will back down from its rhetoric of humanitarian values and follow a policy of turning a blind eye to crimes committed. The message drawn by many from this monthslong deadly conflict is “everyone is on their own” in the face of threats. Several Gulf countries including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which have close ties with Washington, were for decades unofficially relying on the U.S. for their security – be it against terrorist organizations, Iran or escalation with Israel.

    Yet the new understanding of every man for himself will bring together regional countries seeking greater security mechanisms and entering new arms races in the future.

    Once a big player in the Middle East, the U.S. had been seeking to lessen its presence in the region for quite some time while shifting its focus toward China and the Far East. Decreasing troops in Syria and the abrupt withdrawal from Afghanistan had been some of the breaking points signaling the U.S. was less willing to deal with the problems of the Middle East. But its incapacity regarding Gaza will lead to what Fidan described as “a new geostrategic fracture.”

    Türkiye’s top diplomat pointed out that the West has no mechanism or tool of enforcement to pressure Israel. This can be translated into saying that only force or the threat of force will be effective in stopping Tel Aviv. What is similarly problematic is that the Islamic world also lacks tools to enforce its will on the international community. Muslim countries must continue to be united in this case and must search for tools that could result in repercussions for Western countries, going beyond words of condemnation. If the Islamic world fails in the case of Gaza, this will further open the way for the West to act solely considering their priorities.

    Still, the contact group led by Türkiye, the Arab League and the Organisation for Islamic Cooperation (OIC) has been influential in changing the stance of some states in Europe while also being in coordination with China and Russia.

    Fidan also warned of the effects of the Gaza conflict on the societal level. “If the response of governments is seen as insufficient, the public may take things into their own hands, leading to social escalation such as the Arab Spring in the past.

    “Governments represent their societies and have to put in policies reflecting their wills,” he said. Indeed, the many protests in support of Gazans across the world are already a symptom of the voice of the public.

    Governments in the Middle East have to act if they want to retain their legitimacy in the eyes of their public. Protests also exist in Europe and the U.S. and people see their governments are not doing enough.

    This is one of the reasons why Türkiye has been speaking out against the atrocities committed in Gaza and calling for a permanent cease-fire and a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian question. Just as Fidan underlined, coherence between the aspirations of the public and the policies of the Turkish state has been an influential factor in explaining the low number of participation in global terrorist networks, while this number was higher in the West.

    Governments fulfilling their duty and translating the will of the public into state policies will hinder citizens and nonstate groups from taking their fate into their own hands. Greater awareness in this field will also prevent regional groups such as Hezbollah or other Iran-backed proxies from claiming a greater role than states and gaining the support of the public. The international community has to reconsider its stance and tools for Gaza to avert the conflict from spilling into the Middle East and even toward the West.

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