Sides are looking for a potential deal to find a solution to a complex issue for Syria in the aftermath of the fall of the Assad regime: the YPG, the Syrian wing of the PKK terrorist group that enjoyed vast U.S. support during the unrest in the country. The YPG occupied parts of northeastern Syria and declared a so-called semi-autonomy. It has few options than succumbing to the demands of new rulers and Türkiye, which is worried about terrorist attacks.
Diplomatic and military negotiators from the United States, Türkiye, the YPG and the new administration of Syria are engaged in separate talks to resolve the issue. Sources speaking to Reuters said an accord could be reached in the coming months for some members of the YPG to leave Syria and others falling under the authority of the new Defense Ministry. However, many thorny issues need to be resolved, they said. These include how to integrate the YPG’s well-armed and trained members into Syria’s security framework and administer the territory under their control, which includes key oil and wheat fields.
In an interview with Saudi Arabia’s Asharq News channel on Tuesday, YPG leader Ferhat Abdi Şahin, code-named “Mazloum Koban,” said their “basic demand” is for decentralized administration. The demand poses a potential challenge to Syria’s new leadership, which wants to bring all of the country back under the government’s authority after ousting Bashar Assad last month.
Şahin indicated that they had no intention of dissolving, saying it was open to linking with the Defense Ministry and operating according to its rules, but as “a military bloc.” Syria’s new defense minister, Murhaf Abu Qasra, rejected that approach in an interview with Reuters on Sunday, saying the suggestion that the YPG remain a bloc “is not right.” The new administration has said they want all armed groups to integrate into Syria’s official forces, under a unified command.
How much autonomy the YPG would retain likely hinges on whether incoming U.S. President Donald Trump continues Washington’s longtime support of the YPG, according to diplomats and officials on all sides. Trump has not spoken publicly about his intentions, including his plans for some 2,000 U.S. troops stationed in Syria. A Trump representative did not comment.
Any deal also depends on whether Türkiye holds off on a cross-border operation against the YPG. Ankara views the YPG as an extension of the PKK, which killed thousands of people in the country since the 1980s. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said this month that Syria’s new authorities “should be given an opportunity to … end the occupation and terror the YPG created,” but he did not say how long Ankara would wait for it to disarm before launching an incursion. A Turkish Foreign Ministry source said disarming armed groups and the departure of “foreign terrorist fighters” were essential for Syria’s stability and territorial integrity, so the sooner this happens the better. “We are voicing this expectation of ours in the strongest terms during our contacts with both the United States and the new administration in Damascus,” the source said.
U.S. and Turkish officials have been holding “very intensive” discussions since the collapse of the Assad regime, a senior U.S. diplomat told Reuters. The two countries share a “common view of where things should end up,” including a belief that all foreign fighters should exit Syrian territory, the diplomat said, noting Turkish negotiators “have a very high sense of urgency” to settle things. However, the diplomat, who like some other sources requested anonymity to discuss sensitive negotiations, said the talks were “hugely complex” and would take time. Parallel talks are taking place between the U.S. and both the YPG and the new rulers of Syria, Türkiye and Damascus, and the YPG and Damascus, officials from all sides say.
The YPG exploited the security vacuum and an apparent aversion of pro-Assad forces to strike them during the civil war and carved out its entity in northeastern Syria. As anti-regime forces advanced toward Damascus last December, the Syrian National Army (SNA) launched an offensive against the YPG to take back key towns the terrorist group captured. They managed to capture Tal Rifaat and Manbij.
Officials on all sides worry that failure to reach a “cease-fire” and longer-term political accord in the northeast could destabilize Syria as it seeks to recover from a 13-year civil war. Failure to resolve the fate of the YPG in Syria could also undermine nascent efforts to end the PKK terrorism in Türkiye. The United Nations has warned of “dramatic consequences” for Syria and the region if a political solution is not found in the northeast.
Trade-offs
U.S. support for the YPG has been a source of tension with its NATO ally Türkiye. Washington views the YPG as a key partner in countering Daesh, which U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned will try to use this period to re-establish capabilities in Syria. The YPG is still guarding tens of thousands of detainees linked to the group. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan recently said that Türkiye has the power to “crush” all terrorists in Syria, including Daesh and the YPG.
Türkiye wants the management of camps and prisons where Daesh detainees are being held transferred to Syria’s new rulers and has offered to help them. It has also demanded that the YPG expel all foreign fighters and senior PKK members from its territory and disarm the remaining members in a way it can verify.
Şahin has shown flexibility regarding some Turkish demands, telling Reuters last month that its foreign fighters, including PKK members, would leave Syria if Türkiye agreed to a cease-fire. The PKK said in a statement to Reuters on Thursday that it would agree to leave if the YPG maintains control of the northeast or a significant role in joint leadership.
Such assurances are unlikely to satisfy Ankara at a time when the YPG is “trying to stay alive and autonomous” in Syria, Ömer Önhon, Türkiye’s last ambassador to Damascus, told Reuters. In Ankara last Wednesday, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Sahibani said the extensive U.S.-backed YPG presence was no longer justified, and the new administration would not allow Syrian land to be a source of threats to Türkiye. Standing next to him, his Turkish counterpart, Fidan, said it was time to put anti-terror pledges into practice.
Şahin told Asharq News that he has met with Syria’s de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, and the two sides agreed to set up a joint military committee to decide how the YPG would integrate with the Defense Ministry. He described the meeting with Sharaa as positive.
Abu Qasra, the defense minister, accused YPG leaders on Sunday of “procrastinating” on the issue, saying “consolidation of all areas under the new administration … is a right of the Syrian state.” The new leadership believes that allowing YPG members to continue operating as a bloc would “risk destabilization, including a coup,” a ministry official told Reuters. Şahin argued that a decentralized administration would not threaten Syria’s unity.
Some Syrian officials and diplomats say the YPG will likely need to relinquish control of significant territory and oil revenues, gained during the war, as part of any political settlement. In return, the YPG could be granted protections for their language and culture within a decentralized political structure, said Bassam al-Kuwatli, president of the small Syrian Liberal Party, which supports minority rights but is not involved in the talks. Şahin told Asharq News that the YPG was open to handing over responsibility for oil resources to the new administration, provided the wealth was distributed fairly to all provinces.
Washington has called for a “managed transition” of the YPG’s role.
A U.S. diplomat said Assad’s ouster opens the door for Washington to eventually consider withdrawing its troops from Syria, though much depends on whether trusted forces like the YPG remain engaged in efforts to counter any Daesh resurgence.
Trump’s return to the White House on Monday has raised hopes in Türkiye of a favorable deal, given the rapport he established with Erdoğan during his first term. Trump has spoken approvingly about Erdoğan’s role in Syria, calling him a “very smart guy,” and said Türkiye would “hold the key” to what happens there.
“The Americans won’t abandon (the YPG),” said Önhon, Turkey’s former ambassador. “But the arrival of someone as unpredictable as Trump must worry them in a way too.”