As geopolitical tensions mount from the ongoing war in Ukraine to the Trump administration’s shifting stance on NATO, the European Union faces a stark reality: It can no longer afford to overlook Türkiye’s strategic importance.
Recent events, including Trump leaving out the EU and Ukraine for talks on the ongoing war with Russia, Trump voicing his intention to expand its territory by acquiring Denmark’s Greenland, rumors on a deal with China that officials in Europe fear might harm Taiwan and Trump’s downplaying of NATO’s importance among other issues, highlight the urgent need for Europe to reassess its partnerships.
With NATO’s security landscape in flux and European defense capabilities stretched thin, Türkiye is emerging as an indispensable player in regional security, economic stability and migration management.
U.S. shift and European uncertainty
The Trump administration has signaled a transactional approach to NATO, questioning U.S. commitments to defending allies who fail to meet defense spending targets. During a recent event, Trump reportedly told donors: “If they don’t pay, they don’t get protection. It’s that simple.”
For European policymakers, such statements raise concerns about the alliance’s future. European leaders are currently divided into three main camps. Gaullists, as we may call them according to Charles de Gaulle, who envisioned an independent Europe, argue for strategic autonomy of the continent and less reliance on the U.S. The camp is led by French President Emmanuel Macron, who had warned of NATO’s “brain death” in Trump’s first term. The second group favors close trans-Atlantic ties and includes countries such as Poland and the Baltic states, insisting that close trans-Atlantic ties remain essential. With growing concerns over Russian aggression, they view NATO as the only reliable security umbrella and have called for increased U.S. military presence in Europe. A third group, represented by figures like Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, takes a different stance, advocating for a more pragmatic relationship with Russia. These leaders argue that long-term stability cannot be achieved without diplomatic engagement with Moscow and have opposed further escalation in economic and military confrontations. The divide between these groups has complicated the EU’s ability to form a unified security strategy, leaving open questions about how Europe will adapt to a changing global order, especially as U.S. foreign policy priorities shift under the Trump administration.
However, a 2024 report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) highlights that, although European NATO members have significantly increased their defense budgets over the past decade, these investments have not yet translated into the comprehensive military capabilities required for full autonomy, making cooperation with external actors vital.
Türkiye, with NATO’s second-largest military and a rapidly growing defense sector, including advancements in drone technology, is already playing a key role in European security. Türkiye’s control over the Bosporus and Çanakkale Strait, which regulate naval access to the Black Sea, adds another layer of strategic importance, particularly as tensions persist in Ukraine.
Unlike some European powers, Türkiye has engaged directly in both military support for Ukraine and diplomatic outreach to Russia.
Türkiye’s Bayraktar TB2 drones played a critical role in Ukraine’s early defense against Russian forces. Ankara has facilitated grain export agreements between Kyiv and Moscow, ensuring global food supply chains remain intact. Moreover, Türkiye has been central to prisoner exchange negotiations, demonstrating its unique ability to maintain dialogue with both sides.
During the visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Ankara, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan once again underlined that Türkiye fully supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity – a notion aligning with that of Europe as Trump on the other hand argues that Kyiv has to give up on certain territories. Zelenskyy, for his part, said that “Türkiye’s support is crucial for Ukraine’s security and for stability in the region,” and added that Ankara should be part of negotiations. Zelenskyy’s visit coincided with the U.S. meeting with Russia to discuss the future of the war in Saudi Arabia.
Samuel Doveri Vesterbye, director of the European Neighborhood Council, told Daily Sabah that the current potential of the EU-Türkiye rapprochement in the face of the increasingly difficult relationship with the U.S. largely depends on three things. “The first is that the customs union reform should be put directly back on the agenda and start being negotiated as soon as possible. What we can be sure about is that if the customs union renewal takes place and there is a serious renewed customs union, then we can expect common security and foreign policy to align more and more.”
Secondly, Vesterbye elaborated that there is a strong need for security to go back on the agenda. “Currently, there are blocks on PESCO and European defense fund and any other security initiatives. It would be wise to start dealing with security, however due to the blocks internally in the EU it may not be possible to move ahead. In that case, it would be essential to work with the British, French and other EU nations to get Türkiye within the framework of NATO to have a European NATO security agreement or format instead, especially when it comes to defending Ukraine.”
Thirdly, he mentioned the importance of connectivity for ties between the bloc and Türkiye. “There is huge potential for more cooperation between Brussels and Ankara in Central Asia, in the Caucasus, as well as the Middle East.”
Migration and regional stability
Türkiye’s role in migration management is another factor that underscores its significance to the EU. Hosting over 3.6 million refugees, Türkiye remains central to controlling migration flows into Europe.
EU officials have acknowledged the necessity of renewing and strengthening agreements on migration, as previous deals, such as the 2016 EU-Türkiye agreement, have helped stabilize the crisis. A recent report from the European Commission stated that “Türkiye remains a key partner in managing migration, and cooperation in this area is essential for European stability.”
With the rise of far-right parties and shifting public opinion in Europe, many leaders are trying to balance the public’s demands for tougher migration policies. Germany’s chancellor-to-be, for example, relied on the support of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) – a move much criticized – in a parliament vote last month to pass a resolution demanding tougher immigration rules. Italy, on the other side, has engaged in a flagship plan to outsource migrant processing to a non-EU country and speed up repatriations of failed asylum-seekers. Other European leaders are urging for increased border security and controls. Cooperation with Ankara will prove essential in curbing irregular migrant flows so that the EU’s leaders can consolidate their voter bases.
On the other side, Türkiye’s role also increased further in Syria, whose stability is seen as critical by EU leaders to hinder further migration waves after the fall of longtime dictator Bashar Assad. Ankara, since the start of the war, has close ties to several groups in the country while hosting millions of Syrians and rebuilding areas in the north.
Beyond security, Türkiye is also a major economic partner for the EU. Meanwhile, energy is another dimension in which Türkiye’s role is expanding. With Europe diversifying away from Russian gas, Türkiye is positioning itself as a key transit hub for alternative energy sources, including liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipelines from Azerbaijan and the Eastern Mediterranean.
Amid shifting global power dynamics, the EU faces pressing security, economic and migration challenges. Türkiye’s military strength, economic ties and strategic position make it a crucial partner for Europe moving forward. The question is no longer whether the EU should engage with Türkiye, it is how quickly Europe can recalibrate its approach to reflect the new geopolitical reality.