While the negotiations between Iran and the U.S. continue, another process that could be directly affected by the outcome of these negotiations is being overshadowed. In Iraq, the agenda of disarming the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and its components or completely demobilizing the structure, which intensified with the start of U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term, is directly affected by the outcome of the negotiations. As discussions on the future of the PMF intensify, there is great curiosity as to whether the talks will have a positive or negative outcome. However, a bill introduced in the U.S. House of Representatives broadens the perspective and expectations on this issue. The “Free Iraq From Iran Act” bill, introduced in the House of Representatives, suggests that the U.S. approach to PMF disarmament and demobilization is part of a broader vision.
The bill envisages the complete elimination of Iran’s political, military, economic and social influence in Iraq through the PMF. This will involve the use of various instruments of pressure and support for the Iraqi central government in different areas. Accordingly, the PMF is characterized and positioned as a tool for Iran to gain influence and create instability in Iraq. Furthermore, the draft aims to completely abolish the PMF, neutralize its components and end all legal and official relations between the PMF and Iraq’s state and security structures. How feasible is this approach, which reflects the main dynamics of the new U.S. vision for Iraq, in practice?
Can the U.S. displace Iran in Iraq?
First and foremost, the objectives outlined in the draft law do not fully align with the reality in Iraq. While the draft law envisages the complete elimination of the PMF’s influence on both the security bureaucracy and politics, this does not seem feasible given the reality in Iraq. It is not possible to completely eliminate the influence that the PMF has established since 2014. This is because the PMF currently has a huge impact on the security bureaucracy, the political arena and the economic structure in Iraq.
In contrast, the strategy outlined in the draft law seeks to achieve results by putting pressure on the Iraqi central government. Accordingly, the bill aims to get the Iraqi central government to declare the PMF, especially its pro-Iranian components, as a terrorist organization, to stop funding these groups, to demand the termination of their legal status and to limit Iraq’s natural gas imports from Iran. In response, the bill proposes to provide intelligence support to the Iraqi central government, to support civil society against Iran, to support anti-Iranian popular movements and to provide media support. However, the feasibility and potential for success of these options must be approached with scepticism.
First and foremost, the provision of intelligence support to the Iraqi central government and security bureaucracy presents a major paradox. This is because the PMF and Iranian-backed groups are currently extremely influential in the Iraqi political structure and security bureaucracy. It is therefore difficult to speak of an Iraqi security or political structure that is independent and immune from the influence of the PMF. In this case, the fact that the structure to which the U.S. can provide intelligence support is largely under the control of the PMF poses a significant problem. This situation renders it impossible to achieve the goal outlined in the draft.
On the other hand, the draft also emphasizes that the U.S. should actively support civil society and political actors in Iraq and take the lead in initiating mass movements. With these initiatives, it is expected that the dissatisfaction of a certain section of the Iraqi people with the various forms of oppression practised by the PMF will turn into a reaction. In this case, however, the active role of the U.S. may fuel anti-American rather than anti-Iranian sentiment in Iraq. This is because, although the Iraqi people are reacting to the influence and certain practices of the PMF, direct U.S. intervention in this process may give rise to opposition. This, in turn, could pave the way for Iran and Iranian-backed militias to consolidate their power rather than lose it.
Similarly, the U.S. use of various economic, legal and diplomatic tools to pressure the Iraqi central government to disband the PMF completely could also lead to this situation. Sanctions against the Iraqi central government could also provoke a reaction among the Iraqi people. In this case, it would be the Iraqi people who would suffer the real consequences, especially in the context of economic sanctions. This could generate antipathy rather than sympathy toward the U.S. Therefore, the option of imposing sanctions on the Iraqi central government does not appear to align with U.S. objectives.
Impact of U.S.-Iran talks
In addition, there are several other functional options. Depending on the outcome of U.S.-Iranian talks, the U.S. could ask Iran to make its militias in Iraq more passive. This option is both more likely to be accepted by Iran and more realistic given the current circumstances in Iraq. Under this option, the PMF could be brought to a position where it no longer poses a threat to the U.S. in Iraq, even if it is not completely disbanded and its legal status could be reorganized to reduce its influence. Of course, the Iranian initiative is a prerequisite for this process.
However, if the U.S.-Iran talks take a negative turn and end in failure, or if Iran fails to meet U.S. demands, a military option could be considered. The U.S. could target Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, as it has done similarly before. This time, however, the operations could be more extensive and systematic. On the other hand, the U.S. may delegate this option to Israel. Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein emphasized this possibility in his statements. Fuad Hussein also said that the U.S. had prevented Israel from carrying out airstrikes against Iranian-backed militias in Iraq. Of course, it is unclear what effect this will have on the Iraqi people. This situation clearly shows that the U.S. can indirectly influence the future of the PMF in Iraq. However, when evaluating the options on the table, it is also possible to see that the U.S. approach of trying to rid Iraq of Iran would not produce positive results.