With the ouster of Bashar Assad’s regime and the end of a nearly 14-year civil war, Syria is looking to a new future of abundant opportunities and several risks that could derail any effort to rebuild, but neighboring Türkiye is lending a helping hand.
Regional power broker Türkiye has steadily backed Syrian opposition forces since the civil war broke out in 2011, which was also a boost to its fight against the PKK and its Syrian offshoot, the YPG. Since the anti-regime offensive took Damascus and Assad fled to Russia, Ankara has vowed to “do whatever is necessary” for the reconstruction of Syria, which the new administration in Damascus has welcomed.
Türkiye was one of the first countries to reopen its embassy in Damascus, while its foreign minister and intelligence chief both met with Syria’s de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, there. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said Ankara would help the new Syrian administration form a state structure and a new constitution. Just this week, the Energy Minister announced the sides are discussing possible energy cooperation, including transmitting electricity to ease power shortages.
This extensive collaboration paints a positive picture for their shared future since utilizing Türkiye’s deep-rooted state tradition, including a vast corporate, military, security and bureaucratic structure, will be a vital advantage to both countries, according to a Middle East expert.
“Syria is a relatively new state; its institutions are yet to be well-established. Therefore, Türkiye’s support will be very important,” said Mustafa Caner, an expert on Türkiye-Middle East relations currently managing Kriter Magazine at the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA).
He said a key opportunity on the table is Türkiye’s capacity to coordinate the international community and its power to channel certain engagements outside the Ankara-Damascus line to “make constructive contributions to a new Syria.”
“For instance, Türkiye could organize a process where Gulf capital is utilized to support the reconstruction of Syria,” Caner told Daily Sabah.
“Türkiye does not have conflicting ties with any country, only competitive actors like Iran and Russia, but we can see them helping one another and acting together in many cases,” he said, pointing out a “competition-cooperation balance” in Turkish foreign policy.
Destabilizing factors
Caner also argued for Türkiye – a vicious critic of Israel’s onslaught on Gaza, Lebanon and Syria – as a “determining factor” in restraining Israel.
“The more stable the new Syrian administration becomes and the more of a balancing element Türkiye acts as I believe Israel will backtrack,” he said.
Israel has expanded its occupation of the Golan Heights in southern Syria in the aftermath of Assad’s fall and continuously bombed what it said were military targets in Damascus. Separately, Israel’s new foreign minister last month said his country should reach out to YPG/PKK terrorists and other regional groups that are “natural” allies.
The PKK/YPG occupies swathes of northeastern Syria in cooperation with the U.S. under the pretext of the fight against Daesh. The PKK is responsible for more than 40,000 deaths in Türkiye, including women and children. It maintains strongholds in northern Iraq and Syria to create a self-styled “Kurdish state.” Ankara says the YPG/PKK is on par with Daesh and should have no presence in the new Syria.
While U.S. troops remain in Syria, the YPG/PKK is cornered by the Türkiye-backed Syrian National Army, which pushed it back from several towns in the past month.
According to Caner, the PKK/YPG, Daesh, as well as other armed groups in Latakia or Suwayda on the Jordanian border are top risks for Syria in the current fractured state it is in.
“The first thing is total security must be facilitated in Syria, starting with the YPG, which seriously threatens the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Caner said.
He warned that continuing a full-fledged political process without eliminating this threat would be a mistake.
Türkiye says it trusts the new rulers to drive out the PKK/YPG terrorists.
Al-Sharaa said on Sunday that the PKK/YPG should be integrated into the national army. “Weapons must be in the hands of the state alone,” he said. “Under these terms and conditions, we will open a dialogue negotiation with the YPG to find an appropriate solution.”
Caner thinks the current field conditions are working against the PKK/YPG, which is under pressure to lay down arms and dissolve itself.
The PKK/YPG’s “legitimacy” in northern Syria relied on the fight against Daesh, but this excuse is no longer valid, Caner argued.
“Disbanding themselves at once would be the smartest route for them because we can also see the support from the international community waning,” he said.
“The YPG will either disband itself and leave Syria or will be removed and eliminated by a military operation. They have no chance of being accepted there as a legitimate actor in the long term.”
Iran and sanctions
Caner warned of the destabilizing effects of other players “unhappy with the new order in Syria.”
“Iran comes to mind, which Iranian officials blatantly express,” he said.
Iran relied on its alliance with Assad to project power and sustain its network of militia groups across the Middle East, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Tehran has said it opened a direct line of communication with the new Syrian administration in an attempt to “prevent a hostile trajectory,” but Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei provoked Syrian youth to “stand against those who planned and executed this chaos.”
What kind of position outside actors will take will depend on internal scales, according to Caner.
“Outside actors who consider any new administration in Syria against their interests might seek to disturb the process, something they have the means to do, unfortunately,” Caner said.
He also urged the lifting of sanctions on Syria, whose economy continues to suffer, especially under U.S. and European Union-imposed restrictions.
“So long as these sanctions remain, they pose both economic threats and risk the political recognition of Syria’s new rulers,” Caner said.