Five months have passed since the fall of Bashar Assad and his regime, leaving behind, economically, a colossal heap of “waste” that will require Herculean, almost superhuman, efforts to remove. A task bordering on the miraculous. Some have even compared Syria’s current situation to that of Germany and Japan after World War II; a comparison that says much about the scale of the extraordinary challenges facing both the Syrian state and its people.
Despite all the visible and invisible obstacles, the keyword in Syria today is reconstruction, along with a determined move toward rebuilding both the state and the citizen.
This is a daunting undertaking, a project to be built from the ground up after decades of authoritarian rule. The Assad regime – it bears repeating – left behind a devastated country and an economy that has collapsed in every sense of the word. Poverty is widespread to the point of near-famine, income has plummeted, inflation has exploded, unemployment is rampant, and essential services such as electricity, water, health care and transportation are in an advanced state of decay.
Assad had no intention of reforming, let alone modernizing. Today, with the new Syrian government resolutely committed to reconstruction, the brutal reality of the Assad legacy has emerged in all its horror: problems and challenges have surfaced in their true – and sometimes extreme – magnitude, revealing the immense demands in time, resources and effort required to overcome them.
Historical overview
In 1950, Syria’s per capita national income stood at around $102, rising to $152 by 1957. During most of the 1950s, Syria was among the most prosperous countries in the Middle East. Agriculture was the cornerstone of the national economy, accounting for approximately 44% of income, followed by trade (16%) and manufacturing (7.15%), not to mention sectors such as transportation, construction and others. This was before the 1963 coup, when the Baath Party took power.
Since the outbreak of the revolution against Assad in March 2011, Syria’s gross domestic product (GDP) has shrunk by 54%. According to a World Bank report, the true impact of the conflict may be far greater. The war-related disruptions have severely affected foreign trade, and the collapse of domestic agricultural and industrial production has increased Syria’s dependence on imports, particularly foodstuffs.
By 2022, Syria’s GDP was less than one-third of its 2010 level. The cumulative economic cost – including lost opportunities – has been estimated at over $700 billion, more than 35 times the 2022 GDP, according to the Syrian Center for Policy Research.
Assad’s war economy now relies primarily on the production and smuggling of Captagon. The annual market value of Syrian-produced Captagon is estimated at between $1.9 billion and $5.6 billion – roughly double the total value of all legitimate Syrian exports in 2023, according to the World Bank. Thus, the foundations of the Syrian economy were hijacked to serve a system of war, destruction and repression: the regime channeled what remained of the national wealth into its military machinery. Defense spending soared, the economy was militarized, and what was officially labeled “added value” became a driver of economic and developmental devastation. According to the World Bank estimates, Syria’s external debt, which stood at around $8 billion before the war, rose significantly due to the regime’s dependence on external financing from Russia and Iran.
How much time is needed?
The war in Syria is considered one of the greatest episodes of economic infrastructure destruction in modern history. Analysts estimate that it could take the Syrian economy a decade to recover from the ravages of war, provided that political conditions stabilize and international support is secured. Inflation has reached astronomical levels, around 300%, particularly for essential goods. The average monthly income per capita ranges from just $20 to $40. This is taking place in a context of total economic paralysis, affecting both the public and private sectors.
Today, with the lifting of Western and especially U.S. sanctions, constraints on foreign financial transactions have been removed. This is expected to allow for the free movement of capital and foreign investment, the resumption of essential imports for reconstruction, and the revival of Syria’s economic fabric, which had long been suffocated by a sanctions regime in place since the late 1970s, making Syria one of the most economically isolated countries in the world, alongside Iran, North Korea and Cuba.
Plan for rapid recovery
How did the German miracle happen?
Germany’s postwar growth did not come out of nowhere. It was the result of strategic economic planning aimed at rebuilding the country’s infrastructure. Germany benefited from the Marshall Plan, which provided substantial financial support for reconstruction, but the decisive factor was its ability to create a secure and attractive environment for both domestic and foreign investment. The development of a modern road network, the modernization of ports, and the expansion of service sectors strengthened this dynamic. Education and vocational training played a central role, with a strong focus on producing a qualified workforce to meet the needs of a changing labor market. Additionally, the German government adopted a strict monetary policy to stabilize the currency and control inflation.
Is economic miracle possible?
Why not, if the right conditions are met?
Among the most critical factors are human capital and professional expertise. Syria has a large population of educated citizens with experience in fields such as engineering, medicine, science and skilled crafts. The contribution of Syrian industrialists has always been of great value to the national economy, as evidenced by their successes in Türkiye, Egypt and Jordan. In addition, the country benefits from a highly educated diaspora trained at top universities around the world. Syria’s strategic geographic location provides it with a key logistical advantage. It also possesses abundant natural resources: phosphates, coal mines, gold deposits and mountains rich in marble and granite of world-class quality. The country is renowned for producing high-grade cotton and durum wheat, and is one of the leading producers and exporters of olives, olive oil, citrus fruits and vegetables.
This is not an appeal to utopia, but to informed hope: once there is a sincere commitment to work and rebuild, the fruits of such efforts will inevitably appear.
It is worth noting, however, that unlike Germany, Syria is neighbored by Israel, a state that does not wish to see its resurgence. Nor was Germany judged by the world on the length of its leader’s beard or his ideological background.