Under the lens of Ibn Khaldun’s “Cyclical Theory of States,” Manchester City’s recent struggles paint a picture of decline that mirrors the life cycle of empires: rise, peak, and fall.
Managed by the celebrated Pep Guardiola, the club’s turbulent descent into uncertainty is sparking whispers of a possible end to their dominance in football.
Renowned sociologist, historian, and statesman Ibn Khaldun argued that states – like people – experience birth, growth, aging, and eventual demise.
This concept has striking parallels in football, where clubs, players, and managers often endure similar cycles.
From the decline of Manchester United’s reign to the fading European dominance of Milan, Juventus, and Barcelona, history’s warning signs are evident.
Could Manchester City now be the latest to succumb to this cycle?
Legacy under siege
Since Abu Dhabi United Group’s acquisition in 2008, Manchester City soared to unprecedented heights, amassing 18 trophies under Guardiola, including six Premier League titles and a coveted Champions League crown.
Guardiola revolutionized football with his possession-based tactics, inspiring a generation of coaches.
However, the team’s recent form is a shadow of its former glory.
Over their last 11 matches, City managed just one win, alongside eight defeats and two draws, marking Guardiola’s worst managerial stretch.
However, the slump began on Oct. 30 with a defeat to Tottenham and spiraled from there.
In the Premier League, the Cityzens fell to Bournemouth, Brighton, Liverpool, and Manchester United, while managing a solitary victory against Nottingham Forest.
Their Champions League campaign was equally disastrous, with losses to Sporting Lisbon and Juventus and a dramatic 3-3 draw against Feyenoord despite leading 3-0.
These results have left City fifth in the Premier League after 16 games with 27 points, while their Champions League aspirations hang by a thread, sitting 22nd with just eight points.
Guardiola under fire
Guardiola’s frustrations have been palpable.
Known for his meticulous and composed demeanor, he’s shown signs of psychological strain – scratching his face during matches and gesturing in frustration at fans and officials.
When asked about visible scratches on his face after the Feyenoord draw, Guardiola confessed, “I did it to myself. I wanted to hurt myself.”
Adding to the unease, Guardiola hinted at stepping away from club football. “I don’t have the energy to start over elsewhere. Maybe a national team, but for now, I think stepping back would do me good,” he revealed in a recent interview.
Beyond the pitch, Manchester City face a storm of legal troubles.
In February 2023, the Premier League accused the club of 115 breaches of financial fair play (FFP) rules between 2009 and 2018.
Allegations include falsifying sponsorship revenues and withholding accurate financial information.
A ruling expected by March 2025 could see City relegated or banned from domestic and international competitions if found guilty.
City’s previous run-in with UEFA over FFP violations led to a two-season European ban in 2020, later overturned by the Court of Arbitration for Sport, but the current charges pose a far graver threat.