The world is increasingly becoming uncertain, where arms races have restarted and states question their security measures. In this context, the EU Informal meeting of foreign affairs ministers, also dubbed “Gymnich,” has come together, and this time, it is also inviting Türkiye.
Ankara last attended Gymnich in 2019, after which years of turmoil followed in Türkiye-EU relations. So, why was Türkiye invited this time?
Three main reasons can be pointed out as to why Türkiye was invited, particularly this year. The deteriorating security atmosphere, the uncertainty of U.S. elections and a decrease in tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean.
The European Union has faced a war at its doorstep after decades of peace with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. On top of that, the war in Gaza started, bearing the potential to spread regionally and affect everything from marine trade to possible migration waves.
Ankara is currently a key actor in mediating and leading diplomatic efforts for these two main crises. Similar to its efforts on the Ukraine-Russia scene and success in establishing a grain corridor deal that helped avert a food crisis, it engaged in busy diplomacy since the conflict started in October last year with Hamas’ attack on Israel.
The changing security atmosphere and the desire of European countries to increase their security are best reflected in the latest arms import figures. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), these countries’ arms imports increased by a record 94% between 2019-2023 compared to 2014-2018.
Moreover, a possible Donald Trump victory in the upcoming elections in the U.S. will also lead many EU countries to reconsider their alliances and security. In his previous period, Trump often urged the EU to increase their defense spending and voiced that U.S. taxpayers’ money would be used for the country’s own interests. Since then, the EU has contemplated adopting a more autonomous foreign and security policy – although the bloc is far from a compromise. The U.S. will focus its attention on internal issues and is expected to pay less attention to problems across the Atlantic. This leads the bloc to increasingly seek regional partnerships to solve problems, such as those in Türkiye.
The last parameter for the invitation is the fact that Ankara-Brussels ties have calmed down in the past year. Relations with the EU have improved, especially compared with 2021, when Turkish, Greek and French warships came close to blows and tempers frayed in the Eastern Mediterranean. The tensions were mostly rooted in competing claims over hydrocarbon resources in the Aegean Sea to the demilitarization of islands in the Mediterranean with Greece. The EU unwaveringly supporting Athens in all disputes against Ankara and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) led Türkiye to take unilateral actions, which in turn severely affected ties with the EU. However, in recent years, Türkiye and Greece have restarted dialogue and even found areas of cooperation. This development had a positive effect on relations with the bloc, although the underlying differences continue.
Türkiye is a candidate for EU membership, an essential partner in economy and trade while being a strategic partner. Thus, the EU reports on Türkiye improvement and the bloc’s efforts to include the country in high-level strategic dialogues, such as the Gymnich, will open the door for enhanced coordination on upcoming global challenges.