Germany has entered a new political chapter with Friedrich Merz, from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), as chancellor. But instead of marking a moment of strength and renewal, Merz’s inauguration has exposed serious cracks within the ruling coalition – and within Germany’s political system itself.
In an unprecedented development, Merz failed to secure the necessary majority in the first round of the Bundestag vote. He received only 310 votes, falling short of the required 316, despite his CDU/Christian Social Union (CSU)-Social Democratic Party (SPD) coalition holding 328 seats. This is more than a symbolic embarrassment. It reveals a lack of unity within the governing bloc and casts doubt on Merz’s ability to lead with authority at a time when both Germany and the European Union need strong, decisive leadership.
Far-right, democracy question
At home, the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) continues to reshape the political landscape. Classified by Germany’s domestic intelligence service (Verfassungsschutz) as a “proven right-wing extremist” party, the AfD has surged to 20.8% nationally, making it the second-largest political force. Current polls even place it at 25%, just behind the CDU/CSU.
In response, the new government has taken a harder line on migration, hoping to win back voters drawn to the AfD’s nationalist agenda. The appointment of Alexander Dobrindt (CSU), known for his tough stance on immigration, as interior minister underscores this strategy. But while the state attempts to delegitimize the AfD through institutional measures, critical questions must be raised: Can a democracy that upholds pluralism and freedom of expression justify the systematic isolation of a party that speaks to a quarter of the population? Does labeling and monitoring such a party align with the liberal democratic values Germany so often defends internationally?
Trump’s return, uncertainty
Internationally, Chancellor Merz faces equally daunting challenges. The return of Donald Trump to the White House has introduced new uncertainty into transatlantic relations. For an export-dependent economy like Germany’s, this is more than a diplomatic puzzle – it’s a strategic priority. In 2024, the U.S. overtook China as Germany’s largest trading partner with a bilateral volume of 252.8 billion euros ($284.8 billion). The Merz government has already emphasized the “extraordinary importance” of maintaining a close partnership with the U.S. Merz has proposed a “zero-tariff” trade model in talks with Trump. However, concerns remain about Washington’s long-term reliability – especially given Trump’s protectionist stance toward China and erratic diplomatic style.
The Merz administration has also signaled a firm stance against Russia. The recent summit in Kyiv, which included leaders from France, the U.K., Poland and Ukraine, reflected a show of European unity against Russian aggression. The participation of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, whose country shares a border with Russia, underscored how close the confrontation may become. Whether Germany is genuinely prepared for a direct military confrontation with Russia remains unclear, but its political rhetoric leaves little room for ambiguity.
New approach to Türkiye
On another front, Germany’s relations with Türkiye could take a more pragmatic turn. Merz has described Türkiye as “an extremely valuable NATO partner,” praising its strategic location and expressing a desire to strengthen cooperation within the alliance. This tone of engagement contrasts with the sometimes-confrontational style of previous foreign ministers.
The new foreign minister, Johann Wadephul, offers further reason for cautious optimism. Within the CDU, Wadephul has long advocated for a balanced and respectful approach toward Ankara. He has emphasized Türkiye’s importance on NATO’s southeastern flank and acknowledged its legitimate security concerns, especially regarding its southern border with Syria. At the same time, Wadephul has stressed the importance of proportionality and international law in military operations, suggesting that his approach will combine strategic realism with a principled commitment to diplomacy.
Importantly, Wadephul has not shied away from criticizing President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s more aggressive foreign policy moves, but he has done so without jeopardizing the overall partnership. His diplomatic style reflects an effort to maintain critical distance while preserving dialogue – a strategy Germany sorely needs in a world increasingly divided along ideological lines.
Fragile start in fractured world
In conclusion, Germany’s new government starts under a cloud of internal disunity and external uncertainty. Merz has a steep hill to climb if he hopes to present himself as a stabilizing leader – for Germany, for Europe and for the trans-Atlantic alliance. The months ahead will test his coalition’s ability to govern, its moral clarity in dealing with democratic dissent, and its capacity to navigate a volatile international system. Whether Merz rises to the occasion or remains a chancellor weakened from day one is a question that will define Germany’s political trajectory in the years to come.