Political drama in France continues, offering ample material for analysts and political drama writers. The year 2024 was one that the French people desperately wanted to end, as it was a turbulent time for President Emmanuel Macron. During the year, Macron appointed four prime ministers, while France faced multiple social and political protests, from Calais on the French Channel to New Caledonia in the Pacific Ocean.
France’s political crisis is, at its core, a constitutional crisis, despite the denial of this fact by pro-President Macron pundits. This state of denial was evident in the president’s own actions when, last month, he appointed Christian Democrat François Bayrou to form a national interest government across the political center. As a result, Prime Minister Bayrou ended up choosing a very socially and societally conservative right-wing government under the scrutiny of far-right National Rally (RN) leader Marine Le Pen on one side and the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition on the other.
The newly appointed Prime Minister Bayrou formed a government, hoping to avoid yet another no-confidence vote. Bayrou promised to create a national interest government, as Macron desired, focused on the center of the political spectrum.
Any misstep from this fragile government that might upset Le Pen’s strategy would likely lead to Bayrou facing a fate similar to that of former Prime Minister Michel Barnier – a political downfall. In the absence of coherent politics, political dilemmas inevitably arise and Macron still believes that he is in control, able to set the clock.
Following the announcement of Bayrou’s new government, neither the president nor his prime minister could clear the air. This fourth government of Macron in one year would face yet another vote of no-confidence from a divided lower chamber of parliament, which is led by a tenacious opposition composed of the far-right alliance and the nebulous left-wing coalition (NFP).
Heavyweight figures
Macron’s tactic, however, failed. Le Pen strengthened her position following her party’s alliance in the French lower chamber, voting in favor of a no-confidence motion against former Prime Minister Michel Barnier. Le Pen’s actions positioned her party as a powerful kingmaker, pushing Macron aside and reducing him to a figurehead role. Meanwhile, the France Unbowed (LFI) Party continues pushing for the end of the Fifth Republic, which would effectively send Macron into early retirement.
In his “ratatouille” government, Bayrou, an old-school French politician, believes he can solve the president’s political dilemmas. He brought back former Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin, who had pushed for stricter regulations on Muslims in France with his separatism law. Darmanin was appointed as justice minister. The ex-Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne, who was known for using Article 49-3 of the Constitution to push through controversial bills like the pension reform last spring, was reappointed as education minister. Another former Prime Minister, Manuel Valls – once a left-wing politician who later became an Islamophobe, declaring that Islam was incompatible with the Republic – was appointed as overseas minister. Meanwhile, Bruno Retailleau, an extremist right-wing rising star, remained interior minister, tasked with addressing France’s domestic security, political Islam and illegal immigration challenges.
Sharp right turn
With such high-profile figures, the left – particularly Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure, who boycotted Bayrou’s government as a far-right government – extended an olive branch, hoping Bayrou would prioritize forming a stable government, one that could avoid a no-confidence vote over the 2025 budget bill.
However, Bayrou’s promises quickly evaporated. He had hoped to form a government of national interest, bringing the Socialists on board while excluding Le Pen’s far-right RN and LFI. But, like Barnier’s government before it, Bayrou’s government veered sharply to the extreme right.
The ongoing political crisis has left the French lower chamber (Assemblée Nationale) divided into three roughly equal blocs: the left, the center and the right. None of these blocs holds a comfortable majority, leading to an impending constitutional crisis. One of the government’s first tasks will be to draft the 2025 budget bill and reduce France’s budget deficit, which is expected to reach 6% of gross domestic product (GDP) by the end of the year, well above the 3% threshold required by the European Union.
The French parliament is in recess until Jan. 13. Bayrou’s government held its first meeting with the president on Jan. 3, and Bayrou will present his government’s program to parliament on Jan. 14. The LFI Party has already announced plans to launch a motion of no-confidence following Bayrou’s declaration before parliament, which the lower chamber will vote on within 48 hours.
Uncertain future
It appears that France is entering a murky period, one that could lead to a reevaluation of its political system and governance mechanisms. The goal will be to find a new balance that guarantees political and social stability – an issue that directly impacts France’s foreign policy, which has suffered due to domestic missteps. France’s position on the world stage, as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, is threatened by the ongoing turmoil.
For instance, during the 14 years of the Syrian civil war, France played a double game, initially supporting the Syrian opposition and protests against the Assad regime. This support was aligned with France’s pragmatic Levant policy, a strategy it employed during the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, as well as its broader global Arab policy. However, France also supported separatist PKK/YPG terrorism in Syria, claiming to maintain a stance that echoed its “commitment to human rights.”
In the aftermath of the fall of the Assad regime, France is eager to regain its influence. It aims to update the outdated U.N. Security Council Resolution 2254, adopted in 2015. Paris reaffirms its strong commitment to Syria’s sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity and outlines a roadmap for a political solution in Syria.
In the coming weeks, Paris will host a summit on Syria, building on the discussions held last month in Aqaba, Jordan. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot emphasized that the summit would involve cooperation with Arab partners, Türkiye, the U.S., the U.K., Germany and the EU to coordinate conditional support for Syria’s transition. This comes after a recent diplomatic visit by Barrot and his German counterpart to Damascus, which was criticized for its scornful attitude toward the Syrian leadership and people, as the two ministers lectured the region about human rights as if those issues were perfectly handled in France and Germany.
In sum, France is at a historic crossroads, facing an unprecedented political crisis within the Fifth Republic. This crisis, which could evolve into an institutional one, is compounded by deep divisions within French society, an impending economic crisis, the decline of France’s diplomacy in the Maghreb, the African Sahel and the MENA region, and the rise of the far-right party. Furthermore, the banalization of anti-Arab and anti-Muslim sentiment raises fundamental questions about the future of the French political system – questions that France’s two iconic statesmen, General Charles de Gaulle and François Mitterrand, once pondered with great concern.